The Russian invasion of Ukraine and changes in the world order are stressing relations between France and Germany, which are preparing to commemorate the 60th anniversary of a treaty that established reconciliation and friendship between them in the post-World War II era.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and changes in the world order are stressing relations between France and Germany, which are preparing to commemorate the 60th anniversary of a treaty that established reconciliation and friendship between them in the post-World War II era.
‘Friendly relationship at best’
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Paris on January 22 to meet French President Emmanuel Macron, before they chair a joint meeting on the anniversary of the signing of the “Elysée Treaty” on the same day in 1963.
However, the relationship between these two officials is friendly at best, nothing more.
A senior member of the French president’s party told reporters this week, on condition of anonymity, that Schulz “is not very European, he is closer to Germany first.”
For his part, Jacob Ross, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said that Paris had the impression of “a lack of interest in the German-French relationship.”
The tensions in this relationship have become tangible to the public, as an opinion poll conducted by the “Ipsos” institute this week showed that 36 percent of the French respondents and 39 percent of the Germans consider that the relations between the two countries are not in the best condition.
However, the legacy established by the 1963 treaty signed between German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer and French President Charles de Gaulle remains solid in various fields, from military cooperation to knowledge exchange at the youth level.
Europe is the third
An overwhelming majority in both countries still believes that cooperation between France and Germany is central to the EU.
Centrist Macron worked during his first presidential term, starting in 2017, to try to restore France’s economic credibility with Berlin and Brussels (the headquarters of the European Union) through reforms that were sometimes painful and unpopular.
The relationship that Macron forged with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel contributed to drawing the framework for European dealing with the pandemic crisis.
The gained personal confidence prompted Macron to weave additional relations with other parties in Europe, signing bilateral treaties with both Greece and Italy in 2021, and adding a third this week with Spain.
And Ross said that from the point of view of the French president, “if things are difficult now with Germany, and they are not moving forward as he had hoped, then he will try to find other partners.”
Ukraine and a new era
The differences between France and Germany came to the fore in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine from February 24th.
Countries are wary of starting to clamp down on Russia, as it is Germany’s largest supplier of natural gas, and a country that France sees as a major global power.
However, with the increasing costs of the war, France began sending heavy artillery to Ukraine before the Germans did so last April, and this month announced the provision of light tanks to Kiev before Washington and Berlin decided to send infantry fighting vehicles.
Like Poland and the United Kingdom, France is pushing Germany to supply Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, or at least to allow the re-export of the German model, which is widely available globally.
Many observers expected Scholz’s announcement of a “new era” in German defense policy to accelerate cooperation between Berlin and Paris on the development of the next generation of tanks and combat aircraft.
However, Ross stressed that “even under the pressure of events in Ukraine, it seems that no move has been registered,” with contracts for the next stage of tank development remaining unsigned so far.
France has remained on the sidelines in a German-led European missile defense program known as “Sky Shield”, which is expected to use German and American-made equipment, rather than Italian or French alternatives.
The gap between France and Germany appears to be widening.
With possession of a nuclear deterrent force and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, some of the French elites still view their country as a “major power, perhaps of medium size, but on the same level with the others” sitting at the table, according to Ross.
On the other hand, Germany remained largely satisfied with leaving the geopolitical space under the umbrella of American protection, as Washington still maintains nuclear weapons and about 40,000 soldiers on German soil.
A decline in mutual understanding
From Berlin’s point of view, things have become “very complicated because the German economic and political model is being tested,” according to the former French ambassador to the German capital, Maurice Gordo-Montagne.
Experts and politicians in Berlin began to warn that Germany would find itself in a critical situation once again, if China – its second largest trading partner – decided to follow Russia’s example with respect to Taiwan, calling for the diversification of foreign markets for the exports of the largest economy in Europe.
Germany’s European partners are seeking to show Berlin that it is not possible for it to shed its economic weight however it wants, whoever wants it or not.
Last year, France and other neighboring countries expressed concern that Germany’s plan to subsidize the cost of energy for its citizens worth 200 billion euros would drive these parties out of the market.
What is most worrying, Gordoux-Montagniy warned, is that Germany and France’s relationship “has become less real than in the past … and has lost some of its warmth.”
For his part, Ross indicated that the number of people in each country who study the language of the other country is declining.
“In 10, 15 or 20 years… fewer people will be in a position to develop a deep understanding of the partner country,” he added.
