While the number of coronavirus cases in the US continues to rise, infections in the UK appear to be pulling downward.
On Tuesday, the UK registered 23,511 cases of COVID-19, according to government data, the seventh day in a row of declines and a 132 percent drop from 54,674 cases recorded 11 days ago, despite the spread of India’s ‘Delta’ variant .
The drop has puzzled scientists and public health experts, including UK health minister Sajid Javid, who predicted the number of cases in Britain would rise to 100,000 a day before declining.
Meanwhile, America registered 89,418 cases Monday with a seven-day moving average of 57,446, which is an 84 percent increase from the 31,078 average recorded a week and a half ago, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Officials warn that the decline in infections in the UK may not continue as recent cases fail to take into account the full impact of the lifting of most of the remaining pandemic-era restrictions in England on July 19.
However, experts tell DailyMail.com that the decline in the number of cases in the UK is due to several factors, including increased vaccination uptake, warmer weather and fewer people gathering indoors and – if the number of cases in the UK continues to decline — that could spell good news for the US as it battles its own Delta-induced wave.
Coronavirus cases in the UK have fallen for the seventh day in a row from 54,674 COVID-19 cases recorded 11 days ago to 23,511 on Monday, down 119%
Meanwhile, the US registered 89,418 cases on Monday with a seven-day moving average of 57,446, which is an 84% increase from the July 17 average of 31,078.
The number of deaths in the UK has also generally fallen, from 19 last Monday to 14 yesterday, a 26% drop
Similarly, in the US, the number of deaths has not increased and has remained stable in recent weeks at an average of about 200 deaths per day
British officials and Boris Johnson have warned the public that declining numbers do not mean the Delta variant no longer poses a threat.
“I have clearly noticed that we are six days down the road with better numbers,” he said during a visit to Surrey Police Headquarters in Guildford.
“But it’s very, very important that we don’t let ourselves run away with jumping to conclusions about this. People have to remain very careful and that remains the approach of the government.’
In addition, experts in the UK have warned that any impact from England lifting most of the COVID-19 mitigation measures will only be seen in a week and a half.
“The data looks good right now for at least the summer,” said Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia. BBC.
‘[The] Of course, numbers don’t take into account the impact of the end of restrictions last Monday. It will take until about next Friday for the data to comprehend the impact of this change.”
While scientists are surprised by the dramatic decline, they have different theories as to why infections have fallen.
One reason could be that the test numbers have decreased. In the past week, the number of daily tests has fallen 24 percent from 1,074,493 to 810,495, government data shows, and has fallen from an all-time high since March.
“A lot of the people who get symptomatic get milder symptomatic because they’re younger people or people who have been vaccinated,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday.
“So those people don’t present themselves for testing.”
But experts say warmer weather and a change in behavior are likely driving the surge in things like the end of the Euro 2020 football tournament and schools closing for the summer break.
“The rise in the number of cases was partly attributed to the Euro football tournament and social events around watching those matches,” said Dr. Stuart Ray, a professor of medicine at Johns Hopkins University, told DailyMail.com.
‘So the decline is due to a shortage of susceptible people or is it just behavioral change? My guess is behavior change. The great thing about it is that it shows people that behavioral changes can change the course of the pandemic.’
Some experts have said the drop in cases may be due in part to a dip in testing. Figures show 6.8 million were exported in the week to July 22, 350,000 less than the week before, a 4.9% drop
One expert believes the dip could be because the power surges associated with Delta appear to last a certain number of days.
In a note published Tuesday, Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, an independent research boutique, said the spike caused by the Delta variant lasted about 50 days in India.
He said the peak in the UK will hit Day 45, while the US is only about Day 20.
“As a perspective, this suggests to me that Delta may be heading its course faster than many expect,” Lee wrote, according to Barron’s.
Lee said he expects the US to register more than 100,000 new cases a day before a decline.
“Each US state has its own cycle of case surges. Most states are several weeks into this wave. So we don’t have to think that this will last forever.’
Another reason may be due to the inclusion of vaccines.
In the UK, the number of people receiving a first dose has decreased, while the number of people receiving a second dose has increased.
Two doses are known to be highly protective against the Delta variant compared to one dose.
Another reason behind the decline in the number of cases in the UK may be due to the uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine, with the number of people receiving a second dose increasing, and studies showing that two doses are much more effective against the Delta variant
White House chief of staff Ronald Klain tweeted Sunday that there was a significant jump in daily vaccinations by about 790,000 in 24 hours, and an expert says if vaccination continues to rise, the US could see its own cases decline.
a may analysis of Public Health England found that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were a total of 80 percent effective in preventing infection from the variant.
The vaccine was also 88 percent effective against symptomatic illness and 96 percent effective against hospitalization.
‘I’m very wary of drawing any direct conclusions… but I’d heard there’s been a significant increase in vaccinations and that’s arguably the single most determining factor in the UK’, Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told DailyMail.com.
“And maybe it’s a little early, but if I had to pick one thing that would explain this downward shift, it would be this.”
Meanwhile, in the US, after a steady decline in vaccination rates in recent months, an increasing number of people are receiving injections.
White House chief of staff Ronald Klain tweeted Sunday that a significant leap has been made in daily vaccinations.
“Vaccinations are on the rise again — about 790,000 in the last 24 hours per report,” he wrote. “Perhaps the largest 24-hour period since early July. Thanks to all involved.’
Gottlieb told Squawk Box that these trends provide indications of how the wave could develop in the US.
“If the UK comes around the corner, that’s a pretty good indication that we might be further along than we think and maybe we’re two or three weeks away from our own plateau here in the United States,” he said. Gottlieb.