Weekly Covid deaths have risen to the highest level since April, official numbers to be revealed today as the third wave continues to climb.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that 183 people had listed Covid on their death certificates in England and Wales in the week ending July 9, the last available.
This was two-thirds higher than the previous week and the most recorded since the second wave subsided in late April and the country was under much stricter lockdown rules.
Despite the number of deaths now starting to rise – there are now an average of 42 a day compared to 20 at the beginning of the month – they are still only a fraction of the levels seen during the worst of the second wave, when there until 1,800 .
Experts say the number of fatalities will continue to rise as the number of cases increases, but the government’s scientific advisers expect them to peak at 200 or lower due to the success of the vaccines.
The report found that the number of Covid deaths in care homes was also low, despite the rising number of cases in the community. There were 20 registered in the past week and they have not risen above 30 since mid-April.
Last month, the ONS said the share of total deaths in England and Wales attributable to the virus was just 1 percent. Now it is estimated at 2 percent and rising.
There were 183 deaths related to Covid in the week to July 9, the last available. This was a 67 percent increase from the same time last week and the most since April. They are displayed in the graph (dark red bar)
However, the number of deaths from Covid in care homes has remained stable despite the growing number of cases in the community. Last week there were 20 and they haven’t risen above 30 since March
The flu and pneumonia were also responsible for more deaths than Covid in the past week. They were behind 254 fatalities, compared to the 147 who named Covid as the leading cause of death
All-cause deaths rose six per cent above the five-year average in England and Wales, but (shown) for the number of expected deaths at this time of year
But the number of deaths from the virus in care homes remained static despite the growing number of Covid cases in the community
Every region of England saw an increase in Covid deaths, but the numbers remained stable in Wales, according to the weekly ONS report.
The Northwest – which has suffered a major outbreak of the Indian ‘Delta’ variant – suffered the most deaths (66), followed by London and the West Midlands (both 20).
Meanwhile, the fewest Covid deaths were recorded in the northeast (eight), despite the region currently being hit hardest by the Indian variant, with cases double the levels reached in the second wave.
Covid cases rise just 16% in week, figures show
Daily Covid cases in Britain rose just 16 per cent yesterday, as an expert hailed the small increase as a ‘remarkably good’ sign that the outbreak may already be slowing down.
The usual Department of Health update showed there were 39,950 infections in the UK in the past 24 hours, up from the 34,471 recorded last Monday.
There was also another with a further 19 Covid deaths recorded, which was more than triple the six victims reported a week ago, but still 16 times lower than at the same point in previous waves.
Infectious disease professor Paul Hunter at the University of East Anglia told MailOnline that gloomy warnings of more than 200,000 daily cases and tens of thousands more deaths at the peak this fall seemed “a little exaggerated.” He suggested that the number of infections could actually fall on Thursday, if the Covid crisis in England plays out in a similar way to Scotland after the spate of cases during Euro 2020.
Nationally, there are currently an average of 45,000 new infections per day in Britain, and the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) expects this to reach at least 100,000 by August or September.
‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson – whose terrifying modeling of the first wave scared ministers until the first shutdown – has warned that the daily number of cases could rise to 200,000 this fall, which would make the 68,000 pale in comparison to the height of the second wave. in January.
The number of deaths in the region is set to rise in the coming weeks due to the data lag between cases and fatalities – it can take more than 14 days for infected patients to become seriously ill.
No10’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, warned that the easing of Covid rules in England yesterday was likely to lead to a rise in Covid deaths across the country.
On “Freedom Day,” most remaining restrictions were lifted, face masks were made optional, and nightclubs were allowed to reopen for the first time in 16 months.
The ONS Covid death records look at all cases where the virus is listed on the death certificate.
It differs from the health ministry’s death toll, which looks at all patients who died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid, regardless of cause.
It comes as cases hit their highest level in months after breaking the 40,000 barrier, fearing they could reach 200,000 a day by August.
But yesterday they rose just 16 percent after 39,950 were registered, a sign that the third wave may already be slowing down.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline that the figures suggested warnings of 200,000 cases a day were “a bit exaggerated.”
He suggested that the number of infections could actually fall on Thursday, if the Covid crisis in England progresses in the same way as Scotland after the wave of cases during Euro 2020.
Hospital admissions and deaths are also increasing, but they remain at a much lower level than in previous waves due to the successful vaccination campaign.
Scientists have always been honest, saying that shots aren’t perfect and won’t always prevent infection, but they do reduce the risk of someone who catches the virus being hospitalized or dying.
But in a clear sign that they are working, yesterday’s analysis found that the UK’s Covid death rate is now 16 times lower than during both the first and second wave.
The number of infections is currently around 45,000 a day across Britain, with an average of 40 deaths every 24 hours. But the last time cases reached this level — when the second wave started to spiral out of control in late December — there were as many as 640 daily fatalities.
The number of infections currently stands at about 45,000 per day (yellow line shows that the number of cases has increased since May), but the number of deaths remains stable at about 40 per day (pink line shows fatalities in the third wave). By comparison, the last time cases reached this level when the second wave started to spiral out of control (orange line), there were over 600 daily deaths