Hope. It’s the last thing left Pandora’s box. is he underlying theme throughout “The Shawshank Redemption.” And it’s what NFL teams and fans cling to when drafting a young quarterback. Give us a reason to believe that tomorrow will be better than today.
As expected, it’s been an up-and-down season for rookie quarterbacks. But the two biggest innings showed improvement in the initial Week 12 window.
Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams didn’t have real-life wins on Sunday, but they helped a lot of fantasy managers. When the initial window closed, Daniels was atop the quarterback leaderboard (32.4 points) and Williams was in third place (26.9 points). A nifty comeback week when it was desperately needed.
Both players were in catch-up mode in the second half, which may be the nectar of the fantasy gods. The Commanders scored 23 points after halftime against Dallas (including 17 in a chaotic final period) and the Bears used 17 fourth-quarter points and a rare onside kick recovery to force overtime against Minnesota. We can’t call it garbage time when a comeback actually works. Washington would have tied Dallas late if not for a missed extra point.
Daniels had a fantasy game better than a real-life one. He was intercepted twice and only passed for 57 yards at halftime. The most encouraging sign was the return of his running game (7-74-1); He was an ineffective and at times reluctant runner over the previous two weeks. I openly speculated that perhaps his rib injury hadn’t fully healed, but he looked fine against Dallas.
Daniels’ results improved when the Cowboys allowed an 86-yard gift score to Terry McLaurin in the final minute of the game; A book could be written on how poorly Dallas defended that play. But Fantasy managers won’t apologize or give back the points. After scoring about 13 points per week over a five-game stretch, Daniels was back in business.
The upcoming schedule is a middling one: Tennessee, a bye week, and then New Orleans to open the fantasy playoffs in Week 15. The Titans and Saints are in the middle of the pack regarding QB points allowed. Daniels has a Week 16 challenge against Philadelphia and then closes with a home date against Atlanta. Simply put, if he’s willing to run, we’re willing to play against him.
Daniels was needed more Sunday when Brian Robinson Jr. (5-13-0) got up early. We appreciate the two touchdown passes going to fantasy staples McLaurin (5-102-0) and old reliable Zach Ertz (6-38-1).
Williams had a better game in real life than Daniels: he threw for 340 yards and didn’t turn the ball over against the Vikings’ respected defense. He took three modest sacks against Minnesota’s blitz-happy scheme, although one of them was a killer hold on the ball in overtime. There were two touchdown passes, Williams’ first since Week 6, and 33 nifty yards.
I don’t know where Thomas Brown’s story is going, but he seems much more in sync with Williams than OC Shane Waldron ever was. And as usual, the Bears kept the target tree gloriously compact: 42 of the 47 targets went to the Big Four of Keenan Allen (15), Cole Kmet (10), Rome Odunze (10) and DJ Moore (seven). Because fantasy play is silly at times, Moore had the best return (7-106-1 for 23.4 fantasy points) despite the lower workload. He also caught a two-point conversion. But it’s fun to see this offense becoming reliable again.
The biggest issue for Williams’ fantasy managers is the upcoming schedule: It’s a sea of red. Three daunting road games are on the way: Detroit on Thanksgiving, San Francisco and then Minnesota in prime time. The Lions’ rematch continues in Week 16, with the Seahawks in Week 17. Hopefully fantasy managers have a safer option to guard at QB. But if Williams can simply show competence, that will make us more comfortable starting critical pass catchers in this offense. And wouldn’t that be nice?
Note: I’ll add additional Week 12 analysis as it develops on Sunday.