Russia is preparing for a full-scale conflict with the West by 2026, according to a classified German intelligence report seen by Business Insider.
Shocking new analysis warns of a ‘significant intensification’ of Russian arms production which could see Russia ‘double its military power in the next five years’ and war on NATO soil as soon as 2026.
The projections for Russia’s stepped-up arms race prompted intelligence services to conclude an attack deeper into Europe over the next two years ‘can no longer be ruled out’, according to the newspaper.
NATO is believed to share similar concerns about the latest escalations, but does not see the West necessarily being drawn into direct conflict with Russia, according to Business Insider. German agencies have not yet made the statements publicly report notes.
But tensions have risen in recent weeks, with Putin’s weekend presidential bid undermined by angry demonstrations and attacks from Ukraine, and French President Emmanuel Macron still denies to rule out sending troops east to meet Russia’s bloody invasion head-on.
A Ukrainian soldier from an artillery unit fires at Russian positions outside Bakhmut on November 8, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Vladimir Putin attends a parade marking Navy Day in Saint Petersburg, July 31, 2022
Servicemen of the 18th Slovian Brigade of the Donbas Battalion of the Ukrainian National Guard went on a firing range near a front line in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, March 15, 2024
Servicemen from the 18th Slovian Brigade train at a firing range near a front line in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, March 15, 2024
Ukrainian troops conduct exercises with a US M-113 APC in Donetsk, Ukraine, March 15
Missile deployments in western Russia, the reorganization of the army, troop movements and the expansion of weapons production are all referenced in the alarming conclusion of the German intelligence services, according to the newspaper.
They claim that within two years Russia could attack at least part of NATO territory west of Ukraine, such as the Baltic states or Finland.
Earlier this year, the group threatened T-Intelligence estimated Russia saw 2024 as a “waypoint to achieving complete victory”, aiming to bring the war to a head between 2025 and 2027.
They also noted that despite intense losses on the front lines, Russia’s defense industry is “ready to continue intensifying production in crucial areas”, including building new tanks, armored vehicles, sauntering munitions, drones, artillery munitions and glide bomb kits.
Russia was also expected to experience a ‘moderate recovery’ in long-range missile production by 2024.
This year alone, Moscow looks set to spend an estimated $140 billion on defense, or about 7.1 percent of GDP. Defense spending will take up about 35 percent of the 2024 state budget — up from 30 percent from 2023.
Ukraine is estimated to spend $44 billion on defense this year, or about 22.1 percent of GDP, 50.54 percent of the state budget.
Ukraine also receives significant aid from abroad, but there is skepticism about how much is likely to be agreed with political actors clashing over support for large donations.
On Wednesday, the United States said it would send about $300 million in aid to Ukraine, the Defense Department’s first announced security package since December.
But it comes as about $60 billion in aid is being held back by opposition from Republicans at a critical juncture in the war.
As pressure mounts, France’s Emmanuel Macron has taken a much tougher line on Russia, refusing to back down from comments that he would send troops to Ukraine if necessary.
In late February, Putin warned Macron that if France were to send any troops to Ukraine, they would meet the same fate as Napoleon Bonaparte’s Grand Armee, whose 1812 invasion ended in staggering defeat and huge losses.
On Thursday, the French president confirmed that Europe’s security was ‘at stake’ in Ukraine, adding that a Russian victory would ‘reduce Europe’s credibility to zero’.
Kiel Institute notes France has committed 1.79 billion euros in spending to Ukraine, or 0.067 percent of GDP.
Since the start of the war, Britain has committed €15.66 billion to Ukraine, or 0.55 percent of GDP.
Germany has also committed a significant amount to Ukraine’s defense, offering 22 billion euros in aid, or 0.57 percent of GDP.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned in January that Russia could attack a NATO member state within five to eight years.
So does NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged members to be ready for a decades-long fight with Russia if necessary.
NATO continues to conduct the largest set of joint exercises since the Cold War with exercise Steadfast Defender 24, bringing together around 90,000 soldiers from all 32 countries to train together.
Britain’s 65,000-tonne aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales was pictured earlier this week leading a flotilla of ships from the US, Spain, Norway, Italy, Germany and France.
Six Finnish F18s and two Swedish JAS-39s also participated in a flypast.
Land, sea and air exercises took place along Norway’s Arctic coast this week, involving more than 20,000 troops, more than 50 frigates, submarines and other vessels and about 110 fighter jets, helicopters and other aircraft.
Despite the show of force, military experts have warned Britain is woefully underprepared for conflict.
Gaps in Britain’s armed forces were further undermined by this year’s Spring Budget, in which Chancellor Jeremy Hunt refused to earmark any extra money for the British armed forces.
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speak to the media after talks in the “Weimar Triangle” format at the Chancellery on March 15, 2024 in Berlin
Rescue workers put out a fire at the site of a missile strike in Odesa following the March 15 attack
A wounded rescuer takes a moment of respite after a missile attack in Odesa on March 15
An injured rescuer was left covered in dirt and with a large tear in his jacket after the chaos
Firefighters tackle a fire amid rubble after the ‘double tap’ attack destroyed ‘at least 10’ houses in Odesa
Medical personnel provide assistance to a wounded rescuer after a missile attack in Odesa
Lord West of Spithead, who is a former Royal Navy admiral, told MailOnline: ‘I am absolutely amazed that the Government has not increased defense spending in this budget. It is extraordinary.
“They have said that we could soon end up in a war and that we should be prepared to fight. If so, the armed forces will be under-equipped and there will be a much greater number of those eligible for the Invictus Games.’
Former army chief Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon told the Mail: ‘This was the one time the Budget should not ignore defense when the threats have never been higher and our conventional capabilities are not deterring Vladimir Putin.
‘Some of our allies look distinctly shaky. Nothing else matters if we can’t defend ourselves.
“There is no doubt that the vodka will flow in the Kremlin. It is abundantly clear from the budget that the defense of the realm is not an issue for the government and probably not the opposition. It’s incredibly short-sighted.’
Defense Secretary Grant Shapps claimed at the time: ‘In pushing forward to spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defense as soon as possible, we have secured a real increase and the largest defense budget in history, increasing spending by £1.4 billion to £55.6 billion.’