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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — U.S. men’s national team coach Gregg Berhalter is a planner. In the months between USMNT games, when his job is less pressurized and less hands-on, his methodical brain obsesses over details and possibilities. He spent long summer days before the 2022 World Cup analyzing group-stage opponents. He likely spent much of this spring mapping out game plans for the 2024 Copa America.
But he couldn’t have prepared for this, a Group C decider with tricky scenarios, a suspended star and an injured goalkeeper, plus an opponent whose An influential coach will be missing and whose motivations are unclear.
The USMNT will take on Uruguay here on Monday at Arrowhead Stadium in a game full of mystery. And he probably (maybe, but not definitely) must win to reach the knockout rounds of the Copa América and avoid an unvarnished failure.
USMNT Copa America venues in Group C
In a simultaneous group stage final, Panama will play Bolivia in Orlando. The simplified version of several dizzying scenarios is that the United States must match Panama’s result.
After Thursday’s self-destructive 2-1 loss to The CanalerosThe United States and Panama are tied with three points going into the third and final matchday of Group C.
Uruguay has six points, with a goal difference of +7, and will top the group unless they lose to the United States by four goals.
Second, and most significantly, the USA (+1) surpasses Panama (-1) on goal difference; so the US will advance if they both tie or both win by the same margin.
However, if Panama starts scoring goals, the permutations become complicated. The second tiebreaker is the goals scored during the group stage, and there, with each team with three goals, Panama has the advantage. A 3-0 Panama win and a 1-0 United States victory would send Panama to the quarterfinals and the United States out.
An easier way to process those permutations is from the Panamanian perspective: they must improve on the U.S. result; and if they both win, their margin of victory must be at least twice as good as the U.S. margin.
Uruguay fires at full speed
The superficial view, then, is that the United States is in a relatively comfortable position. The problem is, well, everything else.
Panama could easily beat Bolivia, which conceded five goals and is clearly the worst team in Group C.
Uruguay, on the other hand, is humming along. Marcelo Bielsa, a revered Argentine coach, has restarted the light blue and transformed them into arguably the most impressive team at the 2024 Copa America. They are talented, coordinated and aggressive. They press man-to-man, relentlessly, high up the pitch and bombard opponents immediately after winning the ball.
“We know they will be extremely high intensity and forward-thinking,” U.S. defender Antonee Robinson, who played against Bielsa’s Leeds United in the English Premier League, said Saturday.
“The way they maintain the intensity throughout the game is different,” Berhalter added on Sunday.
“They play a high-risk, high-reward game,” Robinson said, sometimes leaving spaces that vertical forwards can exploit.
But the USMNT’s most upright forward, Tim Weah, will not be available.
Berhalter’s options after Weah’s sanction
Weah has been suspended two games for his costly red card against Panama; and the USMNT has been struggling to adjust to his absence.
They only had three days to come up with a Plan B and figure out how to replace a player whose skill set is unparalleled in the current player pool.
Weah, when healthy, has started every game for the US A team over the past two years; He is a fixture on the right wing, because his directness on and off the ball adds dimensions to the American attack, dimensions it would otherwise lack.
So how will Berhalter reconfigure the USMNT without Weah?
Option No. 1: The closest to a like-for-like replacement would probably be Haji Wright, a forward who often played center in the past but now plays wide for the U.S. and his English club, Coventry City.
Wright is more comfortable and effective on the left flank; Christian Pulisic could move to the right, where he spent most of last season with AC Milan in Italy. However, such a change would require further adjustments down the road.
Option No. 2 would be to play Gio Reyna on the wing and bring Yunus Musah into Reyna’s midfield.
If Reyna is considered pivotal in midfield, the No. 3 option would be another versatile attacker, such as Brenden Aaronson or Malik Tillman, on the wing.
But both options have a known flaw: when the United States plays with two wingers that… both They prefer to roam infield, in spaces between the lines (as Reyna, Aaronson and Tillman do, and as Pulisic often does when playing on the left), the American attack often struggles. Without Weah, in September 2022, for example, they didn’t score a goal in 180 minutes against Japan and Saudi Arabia.
Last, but not necessarily least, option number 4 would be something completely unpredictable: Perhaps a 3-5-2 with Pulisic partnering Folarin Balogun up front? Or a 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield of Adams, Weston McKennie, Musah and Reyna?
In the past, Berhalter preferred consistency. He deployed roughly the same personnel during the 2022 World Cup and the exact same lineup in the USMNT’s first two matches of the 2024 Copa América. But, on occasion, he has been willing and able to modify his system to counter a specific opponent.
Uruguayan mind games?
In the build-up to Monday’s game, there were reasonable questions about whether Berhalter knows exactly what he’s going to counter.
Uruguay is not mathematically qualified for the quarterfinals, but with its place practically confirmed, fans and media have speculated that Bielsa could play with a second-rate team, to give the regulars a rest for the knockout rounds.
Assistant coach Diego Reyes was asked several times about that possibility on Sunday. He said, after talking about “many variables,” that Monday’s starting lineup has not yet been determined.
Sitting next to Reyes was backup goalkeeper Franco Israel, an unusual choice for a pre-match press conference, which raised suspicions of lineup rotation. But it was almost too unusual, and perhaps a disorienting maneuver. Rumors in Uruguayan football circles suggest that Uruguay’s lineup will be virtually unchanged.
“I assume they’ll play their strongest team,” Berhalter said Sunday.
And they will not take for granted that their place in the quarterfinals is assured. “We are focused on tomorrow’s game as if it were our last,” Reyes said.
Bielsa is also suspended for Monday’s match
However, they will be without their coach, Bielsa, who received a one-match suspension on Sunday because the Uruguayan players arrived late in the second half of Thursday’s win over Bolivia.
Bielsa can still prepare his team, of course, but he won’t be in the locker room or on the sidelines on Monday. He won’t be allowed to have any contact with them once they arrive at Arrowhead. Two of his longtime assistants, Reyes and Pablo Quiroga, will step in and take charge.
The suspension will limit his ability to take advantage of Bielsa’s mid-game wisdom. But that will not limit Uruguay’s ability to play BielsaBall. His brilliance is in his teaching and training, not in his in-game adjustments. “It’s a well-coached team,” Berhalter said Sunday. “Regardless of who is on the sidelines, the style of play will be very similar.”
And the attendees are in tune with their philosophies. Reyes, since 2007, has followed him from Chile to Athletic Bilbao, from Marseille to Lazio (briefly!), from Lille to Leeds and now to Uruguay. He seemed confident that he and his staff would be able to handle the mission without problems.
“We have been working with Marcelo for a long time,” Reyes said.
A crucial match for the US and Berhalter
The most important thing is that Uruguay is completely healthy and has all 26 of its players available.
The United States will be without Weah and could be without goalkeeper Matt Turner, who injured his left leg in the first half against Panama and left that game at halftime.
Turner held “limited” training sessions on Saturday and Sunday, Berhalter said. It is doubtful for Monday. Ethan Horvath would be the starter if Turner can’t play.
Neither of these are ideal circumstances heading into a hugely important game, arguably the U.S. national team’s most important since Qatar. A win would be a proof of concept and help the U.S. players advance to the knockout rounds and beyond. A loss could trigger a crisis and cost Berhalter his job.
