The US is well positioned to survive a global collapse from climate change, but it hasn’t cracked the top 5 because its massive borders make it vulnerable to mass migration.
Researchers at Anglia Ruskin University have listed 20 countries most prepared for climate change by using additional criteria to see where life is likely to stay the same.
They took into account the fertility of the land, the proximity of large cities from which the people could be expelled, and the ability to produce energy and other products for themselves and others.
The study found that the isolated island of New Zealand is in the best position to keep its robust and complex society intact, but America is prone to mass migration in the event of a disaster because it is too close to megacities on its borders.
A study by Anglia Ruskin University found that New Zealand was best prepared for a global collapse caused by climate change. Above, the city of Auckland
Iceland followed New Zealand. Above, the Northern Lights seen from Godafoss Waterfall
The US missed out on the top five countries that can handle a global collapse from climate change disruptions. Above, the Tamarack Fire burns near Lake Tahoe, California on July 17
The top five is rounded off with Iceland, Australia, Ireland and the United Kingdom.
Island nations in ‘temperate latitudes’ are most likely to survive as ‘lifeboats’ in the event of a severe climate catastrophe.
5 Countries Most Likely To Survive The Collapse Of Climate Change
The countries were assessed on factors such as production capacity, isolation of densely populated population centers and share of arable land by the
- New Zealand
- United Kingdomm
On the other hand, tropical and subtropical soils can become “unproductive and depopulated” due to the risk of erosion and degradation from higher temperatures, according to the study published July 21 in the journal Sustainability of the university’s Global Sustainability Institute.
The US has a very high share of arable land (44.5 percent), direct access to oceans and abundant renewable resources and manufacturing capacity, but it is also close to ‘external’ megacities in Mexico and Canada that would be prone to displacement.
In addition, much of the Southeast is in humid subtropical climates.
Study author and professor Aled Jones told DailyMail.com that the US made it just below the top 5.
“The main reason would be because of the isolation score,” he said.
‘We looked at whether countries were collapsing, who was connected to which other countries. The top 5 were all islands, so part of it was about protecting borders.”
The country has seen firsthand the effects of climate change this year, with wildfires sweeping through the West Coast and flooding from tropical storms flooding New York City’s subways.
The US has seen firsthand the effects of climate change in recent days, including wildfires that continue to rage in California. Above the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco
The US scored high on self-sufficiency thanks to good production capacity. Above, President Biden visits a truck manufacturer in Macungie, Pennsylvania on Wednesday
Australia is another country that ranked highly due to its isolation. Above, Sydney Harbour
Ireland, above, could become a ‘lifeboat’ due to its self-sufficiency and temperate climate
President Biden recently rejoined the Paris climate accords, from which former President Trump withdrew in 2017.
Jones said the best thing the US can do to mitigate a collapse is to help other countries avoid a collapse.
“Because we’re so interconnected and so dependent on other countries, we’re not completely isolated, so the main point – to avoid having to militarize borders and do something like that dramatically – is to look at what makes people resilient and provide support to other countries in the world to absorb other shocks.’
New Zealand, the highest-scoring country on the shortlist, has “limited production capacity,” according to the study, but is saved by a low population, much of the land that can be used for agriculture (43.2 percent) and its status as an archipelago in ‘mid-southern latitudes with no nearby large or densely populated landmasses’.
Researchers based their analysis on a list of 20 countries compiled by the University of Notre Dame.
The UK made the top 5 thanks to its temperate climate and relative isolation from external megacities. Above, the sun is bursting through a British suburb
“We weren’t surprised that New Zealand was on our list,” Jones said the guard.
20 countries least likely to be disrupted by climate change
The countries were assessed by the University of Notre Dame on social, economic and political factors such as social inequality, business and rule of law.
- New Zealand
- United Kingdom
- United States
‘We chose that you had to be able to guard borders and that it had to be moderate in places. So in hindsight, it’s pretty clear that big islands with complex societies are already on them [make up the list].’
It analyzed the ability of countries to survive ‘de-complexification’, defined as a condition where the ‘complexity of human societies on a global scale would undergo a wide and broad spectrum (that is, all parts of societies, technological systems and environments would influence) .’
The study points to the rapid pace at which the human population has grown in a short period of time since the advent of the industrial revolution, along with the disruption it has caused to the environment.
Less than three percent of the world’s surface is “fundamentally intact,” leading to an ongoing sixth extinction period in which “Earth’s biosphere is currently under pressure at levels that are rare, even across geological timescales.”
The UK was shortlisted along with Iceland at the bottom.
It has a very high proportion of arable land (71 percent) and it is an island in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean at mid-northern latitudes.
It has a high-tech economy and abundant natural resources.
“We were quite surprised that the UK came out strongly,” Jones said.
“It is densely populated, has traditionally outsourced production, has not been the fastest in developing sustainable technology and currently produces only 50% of its own food. But it has the potential to withstand shocks.’