The explosive heat waves of summer with potentially lethal consequences could reach Britain every year, according to a surprising new study on future climate change.
According to experts, even if global temperature increases are limited by the 2 ° C (3.6 ° F) target set in the Paris Agreement, mercury could continue to reach record highs throughout the United Kingdom each year.
This year's heat wave has already seen an increase in the number of deaths related to the scorching heat in Britain.
The findings show that so-called "Furnace Fridays", named when record temperatures hit the country at the end of the work week earlier this summer, could also become a regular occurrence.
Reducing global temperatures by reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the only way to stop an increase in the frequency of heat waves in the future, experts warned.
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The explosive heat waves of summer with potentially deadly results could reach Britain every year, according to a surprising new study on climate change in the future. The Dorset coast is crowded as the warm weather draws people to Weymouth to enjoy Furnace Friday on August 3, when temperatures continue to rise (stock image)
Dr. Dann Mitchell (pictured), who participated in the study, said: "As the European extreme heat wave persists in August, with notable droughts, forest fires and impacts on human health, the question that Does it's how often a similar heatwave happen in the future? & # 39;
The claims are made by scientists at the University of Bristol, who used computer simulations from around the world to predict the probability of future occurrences of a heat wave with the same temperature as 2018 under the expected changes to global temperatures.
The researchers used the future temperature targets set out in the Paris Agreement, which aims to stabilize global temperatures at 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) or 2 ° C (3.6 ° F) above the pre-industrial temperatures.
If temperatures rise by 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F), such heat waves would occur every two years, revealed the models from the researchers at the University of Bristol.
However, if temperatures around the world increase by 2 ° C (3.6 ° F), almost every summer will experience heat waves at least as hot as this year, experts warned.
Dr. Dann Mitchell, who participated in the study, said: "As the European extreme heat wave persists in August, with notable droughts, forest fires and impacts on human health, the question is how often Would a similar heat wave occur in the future?
"We show that in our current climate, heat waves of a temperature similar to today would occur once every five or six years, on average.
"Our climate models are not perfect, and they can not capture all aspects of the current heat wave, but they can give us a reasonable estimate of what to expect in the future."
The experts used cutting-edge global climate models taken from the half-degree project of additional warming, forecasting and projected impacts (Happi).
This was developed by an international association of scientists from around the world, including the United Kingdom, Japan, and the USA. UU And Germany.
On the impact of such changes, Dr. Mitchell said that a clear and detectable increase in heat-related mortality is an aspect that will be affected.
Experts found that, even if global temperature increases are limited by the targets set in the Paris Agreement, mercury could continue to reach record levels every year. If temperatures increase by 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F), such heat waves would occur every two years. If they increase by 2 ° C (3.6 ° F), almost every summer they would probably have heat waves that are at least as hot as those of 2018
Hampstead Heath, in North London, is packed with people on Friday, August 3, looking to cool off from the scorching conditions by taking a dip in the pond (stock image)
The so-called "Furnace Fridays", named after two consecutive ends of the workweek that saw unusually high temperatures, can also become a regular occurrence. This graph shows that temperatures in the southeast of England reached almost 25 ° C (77 ° F) on July 24, around 3 ° C (5.4 ° F) more than the July average
Migration is another serious problem, he says, with people in less developed countries migrating from rural to urban areas during long heat waves and droughts.
Agricultural practices can also change, with different crops potentially more suitable for the affected areas, or optimal planting times change.
In very hot and humid regions, it may be impractical for people to work in direct sunlight, so productivity may also decrease.
Speaking to MailOnline about what can be done to reduce this warming, he added: "Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is key.
"The best way for this to happen is to make our politicians work together and set plans for far beyond their time in office." A global intergovernmental approach to reducing emissions is the way forward.
& # 39; You can also do simple things to reduce your individual carbon footprint. Sharing some of your meat-based meals for vegetarian meals will help, for example.
"If possible, using a bicycle instead of a car to get to work has benefits not only for the environment, but also for your body."
WHAT CAUSES SUMMER 2018 GLOBAL HEATWAVE?
There are several major theories about what the recent global heat wave may be causing, according to University of Reading climate scientist Professor Len Shaffrey.
1. Climate change: Temperatures are increasing globally due to the burning of fossil fuels that increase the concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The global increase in temperatures means that heat waves are increasingly extreme. In recent years there have been some record temperatures in Europe, for example, the heat wave of 2015 and the heat wave of Lucifer & # 39; of 2017 in Central Europe. Unusually warm summer temperatures have been recorded elsewhere, for example in Canada and Japan, and it is very likely that climate change has played a role here.
2. Temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean: Temperatures over the North Atlantic Ocean can play a role in establishing the position of the jet stream, which in turn has a profound impact on the climate we experience in the United Kingdom and Ireland. This summer has seen relatively warm temperatures in the North Atlantic in the subtropics and cold ocean temperatures in southern Greenland. It is believed that these influence the high pressure on Europe and push the jet stream further north.
3. The girl: Every few years, ocean temperatures in the Tropical Pacific range from being relatively warm (known as El Niño) and cold (La Niña). Since October of last year, the tropical Pacific has been in a La Niña phase. La Nina is sometimes associated with cold winters in northwestern Europe (for example, the winter of 2010/11 and the recent cold wave in March 2018). However, this year's Nina had begun to weaken around April and had almost disappeared in June, when the current drought in the United Kingdom began.
Four. It is the weather: The above factors influence the type of climate in the United Kingdom and Ireland, but good or bad luck also plays a role, especially in very unusual climates, such as the current heat and dry spell. This summer is no different and the hot, dry weather is partly due to a combination of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures, climate change and climate. If weather patterns continue as they are, then we might expect this summer to be as hot and dry as the extreme summer of 1976.
Britain has been about to roast temperatures above 32 ° C (90 ° F) when an 'ibic pen' swept from the continent in a heat wave that has already had fatal consequences for hundreds.
Two consecutive Fridays in late June and early August were christened "Furnace Fridays" as a result of the increased heat.
Nearly 700 more than average deaths occurred during the height of the heatwave over a 15-day period in June and July, according to the Office of National Statistics.
It was discovered that weaker, older people with kidney or heart problems are at greater risk of deaths that affect England and Wales.
Politicians have accused the government of ignoring warnings from its climate change adviser and have said that if they do not take the councils into account, heat-related deaths could triple to 7,000 in the 2040s.
The heat wave this year has already caused an increase in the number of deaths across the country linked to the scorching heat. People play between the fountains outside the Royal Festival Hall in London on Friday, August 3, as the heatwave continues this weekend as part of the scorching summer (stock image)
HOW IS SUMMER OF 1976 COMPARED TO 2018?
The infamous summer of 1976 has been described as a "criterion" for British heat waves.
Forty-two years later, the heat wave of 2018 can still surpass several records set during the '76.
The highest temperature: 35.6 ° C (96.1 ° F) in Southampton on June 28.
Longest period above 30 ° C (86 ° F): 18 consecutive days
Longest period without rain: 45 consecutive days in the southwest
Highest temperature: 35.3 ° C (95.2 ° F) in Faversham, Kent, on July 26.
Longest period above 30 ° C (86 ° F): nine consecutive days
Longest period without rain: 49 consecutive days in Suffolk
Experts previously warned this summer could finally break the records set by the infamous 1976 heat wave.
The scorching temperatures in June remained hand in hand with those of June 1976, while July this summer was hotter than its counterpart 42 years ago.
If Britain is hit by a warmer than average August, as predicted by advanced computer models, 2018 could be the hottest summer ever recorded.
This year's prolonged heat is the result of a number of factors, including prolonged high pressure and above-average surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.
Experts have also warned that the rising global temperatures caused by climate change are making the heat waves that take over the northern hemisphere fiercer and more likely.
Two consecutive Fridays in late June and early August were christened "Furnace Fridays" as a result of the increased heat. People enjoy the warm weather at Sandbanks beach in Dorset on Thursday, August 2 (stock image)
The average daily average temperature in June 1976 was 15 ° C (59 ° F). This is still the highest since records began. The provisional figure for June 2018 is 14.8 ° C (58.6 ° F), which would rank as the third highest recorded
HOW DID THE HIGH GLOBAL TEMPERATURES REACH DURING THE HEAT BURNER OF JULY 2018?
Temperature records throughout the world were destroyed by an unusual global heat wave in late June and early July 2018.
The suffocating heat cracked the roads and buckled the rooftops of all of Britain, when Motherwell reached the highest temperature ever recorded in Scotland at 91.8 ° F (33.2 ° C). The previous record was 91.2 ° F (32.9 ° C) established in August 2003 at Greycrook.
Glasgow had its hottest day recorded, reaching 89.4 ° F (31.9 ° C).
In Ireland, on June 28, Belfast also hit a record, reaching 85.1 ° F (29.5 ° C). Shannon also reached his own record at 89.6 ° F (32 ° C). In Northern Ireland, Castlederg reached 86.2 ° F (30.1 ° C) on June 29, its highest record.
In Canada, Montreal broke its previous record of the highest temperature, since the readings showed 97.9 ° F (36.6 ° C)
Ottawa published its most extreme combination of heat and humidity on July 1.
Meanwhile, in the United States, Denver, the capital of the state of Colorado, tied its historic high temperature record of 105 ° F (40 ° C) on June 28.
Burlington, in Vermont, set its lowest temperature of all time, registering a minimum of 80 ° F (27 ° C) within the 24-hour period on July 2.
While the western European islands burned in their own heat wave, Eurasia was also baking.
Yerevan, in the Soviet state of Armenia, saw temperatures rise to 107.6 ° F (42 ° C).
Russia, the host country of the World Cup this year, is also in the midst of a heat wave and several places in the southern part of the world's largest country equaled or exceeded its warmer temperatures in June.
In the Middle East nation of Oman, the lowest temperature for 24 hours on June 28 was 108.7 ° F (42.6 ° C) in the coastal city of Quriyat.
These fantastic numbers come a few months after Pakistan recorded the highest temperature ever seen on Earth.