A global financial agency has warned Australia that “stronger than expected” government spending and high immigration are fueling inflation and stalling interest rate cuts, and could mean more suffering ahead.
The International Monetary Fund, the UN’s main financial agency, has released a report warning of excessive government spending and population growth just months before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese goes to election.
With unemployment still low at 3.9 percent, the Washington DC-based IMF warned that excessive government spending would likely prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting interest rates, as borrowers in the rest of the world They would get relief.
“Domestically, persistent labor market tightness, stronger-than-expected fiscal impulses and lower spare capacity than currently assessed could help halt the disinflation process, which could lead to higher interest rates for a period of time.” even longer period that negatively impacts consumption and investment,” the IMF said. saying.
The IMF’s December 2024 report on Australia also suggested the federal government needed to cut spending to help the RBA combat inflation, arguing it could not cut interest rates until public spending was reduced.
“In this context, the current restrictive monetary stance is appropriate and needs to be supported by a fiscal policy that avoids an expansionary stance and complements the disinflation objective of monetary policy,” he said.
The IMF has warned that failure to reduce Australian inflation could mean increases in interest rates and big cuts in public spending.
“If disinflation stagnates, tighter monetary and fiscal policies may be necessary,” he said.
The IMF has warned Australia that “stronger than expected” government spending and high immigration are keeping inflation high and stopping interest rate cuts, and could mean more pain ahead (pictured, center Pitt Street shopping center in Sydney.
The IMF also noted that while record immigration had prevented Australia from sinking into recession, the highest population growth of any OECD nation was causing a housing shortage and prompting greater public spending.
“An increase in immigration and strong public demand have avoided a recession, paving the way for a narrow path to a soft landing,” he said.
“Labor markets have shown resilience and a gradual weakening has preserved some of the gains made in the post-pandemic period.
“However, inflation pressures have persisted, with upside risks arising from the labor and housing markets, a more expansionary-than-expected fiscal stance in future state and state government budgets, and an uncertain external environment.”
The IMF’s warning on public spending came just weeks after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock warned that “it is not just federal governments, but also state governments” that are contributing to the inflation with transportation infrastructure projects.
State and federal government spending now represents a record 28 per cent of gross domestic product, and Victoria in particular has gone deeper into debt to build Melbourne’s Suburban Rail Loop to accommodate an influx of foreign immigration.
By the end of 2023, a record 548,800 migrants moved to Australia, most of them to Sydney and Melbourne.
While immigration has since fallen to 448,090 in the year to October, it is still significantly higher than the Treasury’s revised Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast of 340,000 for 2024-25.
The International Monetary Fund, the UN’s main financial agency, has published a report warning of excessive government spending and population growth just months before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese goes to election.
Australian borrowers have missed out on rate cuts in 2024 as central banks in the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union, among others, eased monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s 4.35 per cent cash rate is now also significantly higher than Canada’s cash equivalent rate of 3.35 per cent and New Zealand’s 4.25 per cent level.
Financial markets and economists at major banks do not expect the RBA to cut rates until May, when an election is due.
Minutes from the RBA’s December meeting suggested the next step would likely be a cut, but it still expressed concern that inflation was still too high, with the core inflation rate of 3.5 per cent still well above of its 2 to 3 percent target.
The IMF also criticized Australia’s 50 per cent capital gains tax discount that has been in place since 1999, meaning only $50,000 of a capital gain needs to be reported on an annual tax return if the price of one unit of investment increases by $100,000.
“Tax reforms should focus on efficiency and equity, reducing reliance on direct taxes and high capital costs, and phasing out tax exemptions such as capital gains tax rebates,” he said.
“A comprehensive policy package is essential to address Australia’s housing affordability crisis, focusing on increasing the construction workforce, relaxing zoning regulations, promoting initiatives to boost new housing supply and reassessing housing taxes. property and stamp duty.
Labor lost the 2019 election under former leader Bill Shorten on a plan to halve the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount to 25 per cent and remove negative tax breaks for future purchases of existing properties.
The former NSW Coalition government also lost the 2023 election after offering home buyers the option of paying an annual land tax instead of stamp duty up front, a policy Labor scrapped after come to power at the state level.
While Labor has delivered two consecutive budget surpluses, the Treasury’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecasts deficits from 2024-25 onwards, as the fall in the price of iron ore reduces federal tax revenues of the companies.
But treasurer Jim Chalmers argued that Labor had been “responsible” in managing real spending growth.
“Overwhelmingly, the story about real spending growth has been responsible,” he told podcaster Michelle Grattan last week.
“And that’s part of the story, it’s part of the reason we’ve had those two surpluses, part of the reason the deficit this year is much smaller than predicted a few years ago, is because we’ve shown that the spending restriction, We have found modest but significant tax changes, and we have also found many savings, and this has been ignored.”
Despite an increase in public spending, Australia’s economy grew just 0.8 per cent in the year to September, the weakest non-pandemic annual pace since the 1991 recession as a result of higher interest rates. .