A series of polls showing Donald Trump gaining ground or widening his lead over Kamala Harris has had a dramatic impact on his overall chances of winning the November presidential election.
The former president has achieved his biggest lead yet in our DailyMail.com/JL Partners electoral model.
It shows that it now wins in 65.9 percent of simulations when the algorithm analyzes all possible combinations of data.
This is a big jump from Friday, when the model was last run. It then won in 61.4 percent of the simulations.
With Election Day just two weeks away, this suggests the vice president is running out of time.
Instead, momentum has shifted toward Trump since the heady days of August, when the newly installed Democratic nominee took a lead in the polls and raised colossal amounts of cash after President Joe Biden’s surprising decision to stay on the sidelines.
The new estimate reflects three new national polls that show Trump taking a lead over Harris, narrowing his long-standing lead in national averages.
Analysts believe Harris will need a decisive victory in the number of votes nationally to have any chance of prevailing in the swing states that will decide who accumulates the most Electoral College votes and wins the White House.
As things stand, the model suggests that the most likely outcome is that Trump sweeps all seven battlegrounds, taking the Electoral College by 312 to 226.
But the figures come with a caveat. Harris is not out of the race.
With a win rate of 34 percent in the simulations, the race remains close and the model offers a final verdict that the election “tilts Trump,” rather than anything more decisive.
The forecast comes from analyzing all the most recent polling data, along with election results from the last 80 years plus economic statistics.
Callum Hunter, a data scientist at JL Partners, said the shift in national polls towards Trump had made the biggest difference since last week.
‘Less than one percent of all Democrat “Victories come as a result of losing the popular vote, so it is paramount that Harris wins the popular vote if she is to win the Electoral College,” he wrote in his Monday report.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, but DailyMail.com/JL Partners’ election modeling suggests the former president has all the momentum with two weeks left.
“The latest set of polls is starting to weaken the assumption that Harris would win the popular vote.”
As that probability weakens, he added, Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College improve.
‘There has also been a long-term trend of closing the gap in national polls between Harris and Trump. A month ago, Harris led Trump by about 3.5 points in national polls; she currently leads by about 1.5 points.
‘The electoral fog is clearing and seems to reveal a probable victory for Trump.
Trump was in Asheville, North Carolina, assessing storm damage on Monday.
Harris was campaigning with Republican Liz Cheney, trying to win over disaffected conservatives in Pennsylvania tired of Trump.
‘We have yet to see the impact of Trump’s visit to McDonald’s this weekend. A visit that went very well for Trump…’
Trump spent the weekend in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, serving French fries to McDonald’s customers and attending a Pittsburgh Steelers game.
On Monday, he flew to Asheville, North Carolina, to see with his own eyes the city devastated by Hurricane Helene.
Harris was in Philadelphia on Monday with Republican Liz Cheney, appealing to disaffected conservative voters.