Donald Trump has opened up a lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets after the vice president had been gaining momentum over the former president.
According Real Clear SurveyAccording to the report, which aggregates half a dozen sources of betting on the election, Trump now has a 49.7% chance of winning, with a 0.9 percentage point advantage over Harris. Trump has not led in the betting since August 22.
The pair were tied as recently as August 31, after Harris had just a 29% chance on July 21, the day Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
Some election forecasters consider betting markets to be a useful indicator, as punters are driven by profits, while pollsters are more vulnerable to political and media influence.
Donald Trump has opened up a lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets after the vice president had gained momentum to reach a tie with the former president.
The pair were tied as recently as August 31, after Harris had just a 29% chance on July 21, the day Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris announced her own candidacy.
Of the six bookmakers in the RCP aggregate, only PredictIt (53%) shows Harris with an advantage.
Trump and Harris are tied in Bwin’s betting markets, but Trump has a lead over the former California senator in the other four, with Bovada giving him a 52% chance of victory.
Polls still show Harris with a slight lead, as the vice president holds a 1.8% lead over Trump in RCP’s polling averages.
However, Trump leads the poll average in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and is tied with Harris in Nevada.
The vice president leads the averages in the other three key states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If all other 2020 election results held and those states followed the path of the averages, Harris would have exactly 270 electoral votes pending from the Nevada outcome — enough to take the White House.
However, recent polls in key states suggest Harris has received little to no boost at the convention, showing Trump ahead of the vice president in several key states.
A Trafalgar Group poll of seven of the toughest contests — considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada — shows Trump either leading or tied with Harris.
Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% in Pennsylvania and 47% to 46% in Wisconsin, two states that flipped Republican in 2016 when Trump won, before flipping back to the Democrats in 2020 when they lost to Joe Biden.
The Trafalgar poll, which poll aggregators say leans Republican, also shows Harris nearly tied with Trump in Michigan, with the former president leading 47% to 46.6%.
Trump leads the polling average in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and is tied with Harris in Nevada
Polls still show Harris with a slight lead, as the vice president holds a 1.8% lead over Trump in RCP’s polling averages.
Michigan was another state Trump flipped from Hillary Clinton in 2016 before ceding to Biden four years later.
An independent survey conducted by Insider’s Advantage shows Trump holding a one-point lead in Arizona (49%-48%), Nevada (48%-47%) and North Carolina (49%-48%), while Harris and Trump are neck and neck with him in Georgia, at 48%.
Both campaigns are aimed at independent and undecided voters in seven key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Harris and vice presidential nominee Tim Walz spent Labor Day in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, including an event with Biden, while Trump made no public appearances.
Similar to Harris, Trump also did not experience the usual surge following the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July.
The stalemate in the relationship between Trump and Harris is a sign of the deadlocked nature of the highly polarized 2024 race as the campaigns enter the final two months before Election Day.
Trump leads on key issues that concern voters heading into the election, including an 8 percent gain in confidence in addressing the economy and rising inflation and a 9-point advantage on handling immigration at the southern border.
The candidates’ running mates are neck and neck, with just a 1 percentage point difference between those who believe they are prepared to be president if necessary. Walz has 50 percent confidence, compared to 49 percent for Vance.
But a quarter of respondents were unwilling to give their opinion on Walz or Vance.
Much of the narrative this week appears to be geared toward anticipating the Sept. 10 debate in Philadelphia between Trump and Harris, televised on ABC News.
Trump will appear at a Fox News town hall with Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on September 4.
