An investor nicknamed the “French whale” has sparked fascination with his Big bets on the outcome of this year’s US presidential election.. Fredi9999, as one of his accounts is known, is betting at least $30 million that Donald Trump will win the election. Polymarket prediction market.
That’s a pittance compared to what could be the biggest gamble of all about the 2024 election, which is how much Trump himself stands to win (or lose). Through his stake in Trump Media and Technology Group, the stakes for Trump amount to at least $4 billion, which is more than all the presidential bets on Polymarket combined.
Trump Media, known by its symbol DJT, is widely viewed as the only financial asset that serves as a binary bet on whether Trump wins or loses the presidential race. If Trump wins, DJT, which hosts the Truth Social networking app, could see a surge in users and revenue, making it a viable social network capable of competing with companies like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. But if Trump loses, DJT’s already weak finances could erode further, threatening the entire business. Some investors believe the stock could go to 0, putting the company in danger.
DJT stock has been wildly volatile over the past two months, rising or falling based on market perceptions of the likelihood of Trump winning. There is a close correlation between Trump’s odds in the betting markets and the direction of DJT stock.
In mid-September, for example, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris moved ahead of Trump in betting markets. DJT shares plunged, closing September at $12.15, the lowest level since the company went public in March.
Then Trump’s election odds improved, reaching 64% in the Real Clear Policy Attaché on October 29. On the same day, DJT closed at $51.51, a 324% gain from its September low. There was no news from the company during that time that indicated any kind of improvement in the company’s financial or operational performance, which is weak.
Over the past few days, Trump’s election odds have fallen to around 55%, while DJT stock has fallen to around $31. Polls show that the two candidates are essentially tiedand Harris could possibly benefit from a last-second boost.
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Trump owns 57% of DJT and the value of his stake has risen in proportion to the share price and his electoral odds. In July, before Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, DJT’s market value was about $7.7 billion, putting the value of Trump’s share at about $4.4 billion. At its lowest point in September, DJT was worth $2.4 billion, and Trump’s stake was worth $1.4 billion. After the October surge, DJT was worth $10 billion and Trump’s stake was worth $5.7 billion.
