If it wasn’t already clear, our latest poll conducted in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania lays out in the starkest possible terms how the presidential election will play out down to the wire.
It shows that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied.
If the election were held tomorrow, each would win 47 percent of the vote in a state that holds the keys to the White House, according to our latest DailyMail.com/JL Partners poll.
The state is likely to provide the turning point in the election. Their 19 electoral college votes could push one candidate or the other over the threshold for victory on November 5.
Of the seven great battlefields, this is the most important.
JL Partners surveyed 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania about their voting intentions Oct. 5-8 using a variety of methods. The results have a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Both parties invest money and people in the State without leaving anything to chance.
Trump held rallies in Scranton (once Joe Biden’s hometown) and Reading on Wednesday.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win everything,” he told his supporters.
Harris deployed one of her main weapons, in the form of Barack Obama, a day later in Pittsburgh.
And both campaigns are spending more here on advertising than in any other state.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said: “Given everything we know, we could be set for one of the closest elections in history, on par with the 2000 election between Bush and Gore.”
“Usually in polls like this we can detect whether a candidate has an advantage beneath the surface, but even here it’s hard to guess: Both sides have things going for them, from Trump’s performance with independents on these issues, to the better orientation of Harris towards the issues voters need.
‘With 96 percent of the state’s likely voters decided, whoever can summon the most voters has the best chance.
“It’s really all on the line in the Keystone State.”
The results show that Harris dominates among women while Trump is far ahead among men.
Trump was in Scranton, Joe Biden’s hometown, last week, among other stops in Pennsylvania. “If we win Pennsylvania, we win everything,” he told his supporters.
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To test voting intentions, JL Partners surveyed 800 likely voters in the state using a variety of methods, including landlines, cell phones and in-app questionnaires.
The results show that the race couldn’t be closer.
Trump and JD Vance have the support of 47 percent. And Harris and Tim Walz also get 47 percent support.
The other names on the ballot (a Libertarian ticket from Chase Oliver and Mike ter Matt and a Green ticket from Jill Stein and Rudolph Ware) score just one point each.
Trump won the state in 2016 by less than 70,000. He lost it four years later by just a little more.
With everything so tight, the Republican and Democratic campaigns intend to leave everything on the field.
The latest data from AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending, shows how campaigns are spending more per electoral college vote in the state than anywhere else.
Harris at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon University
Harris/Walz signs in Indiana, Pennsylvania, ahead of Trump’s visit last month
In Pennsylvania, the amount so far is $13.5 million for each of the state’s 19 votes. The next closest is Michigan at $12.4 million.
Both sides are expected to spend $350 million on television ads in Pennsylvania, more than will be spent in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin combined.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk is expected to make more appearances in the state supporting Trump. He joined the former president last weekend when Trump returned to the scene of an assassination attempt.
What makes the battle so intriguing is the way the state acts as a microcosm of the entire election.
Trump’s path to victory involves expelling his supporters in working-class towns and rural areas, while Harris must win the vote in big cities, where the population is more diverse.
Harris will arrive in Erie on Monday, where she will make her 10th visit to the state since replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee.
