America’s top election forecaster has issued a chilling warning, revealing that Trump could win the 2024 race and that people should start making “contingency plans” now.
Nate Silver, a former professional poker player and political forecaster, has revealed that his model gives Donald Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Silver, known for his uncanny ability to predict election results, said The Guardian that people should “make their contingency plans, right now” while promoting his new book “On the Edge” in London.
“One potential advantage of having a forecast that says… it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans immediately,” he said.
“That doesn’t mean you need to stockpile ammunition and peanut butter” – that laugh again – “but it does mean, you know: What is your strategy for protecting American institutions in the event of a second Trump term?”
Nate Silver (pictured), a former professional poker player and political forecaster, has revealed that his model gives Donald Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
“Or, in 2028 (or) 2032, a Republican like Trump who might be more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to start funding now… to protect institutions in that eventuality, rather than giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs,” he continued.
While he gave Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, he gave Harris a 60 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
“People are going to interpret these polls however they want, and we have an empirically sound method for doing that that has a track record of over 16 years,” he added.
“I’m not patronizing, right? We provide good information. We provide a lot of context around it… I’m an old-school traditionalist and I believe in providing people with good information so they can make better decisions.”
“I think I put more weight on intuition and emotional judgment as elements that actually add value, rather than being something to simply reject.”
Silver, known for his uncanny ability to predict election results, told The Guardian that Trump could win and that people should “make their contingency plans, immediately.”
The political guru expressed fears that crucial “guardrails” that prevented a “total and utter disaster” during Trump’s first presidency have been “weakened” in the years since.
Still, Silver cautioned Democrats against portraying Trump as an existential threat to democracy.
That pessimistic strategy is “very unattractive to undecided voters,” he said.
“Last time there were a lot of protective barriers that prevented a complete and utter disaster, but those barriers have been weakened,” he said.
‘The idea of holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing… Biden said, ‘OK, sure, I can run for president until I’m 86 and I can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country will get you.’ That’s a very unappealing message to undecided voters.’
As for Harris, Silver sees “joy” in her campaign, but is concerned that she has kept too many Biden-era advisers
As for Harris, Silver sees “joy” in her campaign but is concerned that she has kept too many advisers from the Biden era.
“Whereas Harris brings more joy and is obviously a very talented woman,” he said, but he worries that “she’s kept too many people away from Biden who thought it was a good idea to keep running him.”
“I guess I had to do it,” he added.
