Nate Silver has revealed his latest prediction ahead of the presidential election, suggesting the outcome will practically be a coin toss.
The polling guru gave former President Donald Trump a 51.5 percent chance of winning the electoral college, while Vice President Kamala Harris was left with a 48.1 percent chance of victory.
Silver, who left Five Thirty Eight in 2023 and took his forecast model with him, made his latest forecast on his Substack blog called the Silver Bulletin.
He has Trump as a slight favorite, even though Harris is ahead in his set of public polls by just under a percentage point.
“NYT swing state polls good for Harris, but not great”. Morning Consult polls in swing states good for Trump, but not great,’ Silver wrote in X Sunday morning. “It’s a pure toss-up.”
Nate Silver believes the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is “a pure tossup” according to the latest polls before Election Day
Silver first referred to the final poll conducted by The New York Times that showed Trump trailing Harris in four critical states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
That poll also showed Trump with a lead in Arizona, while the two were tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Morning Consult survey The results, as Silver mentioned, were a little kinder to Trump.
He led Harris by two points in Georgia and North Carolina. Morning Consult also found that three states were tied: Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Silver also said famed pollster Ann Selzer’s explosive poll showing Harris beating Trump by three points in Iowa “probably won’t matter” in determining the electoral college winner.
But Silver was not quick to dismiss the results as totally meaningless, saying Harris supporters were right to have a strong reaction.
“I think Harris voters are right to be happy about Selzer’s poll,” Silver wrote.
Nate Silver, pictured, said Trump’s momentum “ran out” in November, making the race a coin toss again.
“At the very least, it confirms the fact that there will be plenty of high-quality pollster numbers in the latest batch of polls that support a Harris win, along with about as many that imply a Trump win,” he continued.
‘If Trump had “momentum” in October, it has now run out in November. And it’s very likely that we will go into Tuesday night with the race really being a toss-up, not tilting or tilting toward Trump.”
Selzer has earned a reputation as the “Iowa poll queen” and the “best pollster in politics” over decades conducting Des Moines Register polls.
The former president stormed the poll by calling Selzer a “Trump hater” and insisting that Iowa farmers “love” him.
“All the polls, except one heavily biased towards the Democrats by a Trump hater who said I was dead wrong last time, have me ahead, BY A LOT,” he criticized in Truth Social.
Selzer took the time to explain himself on cable television this weekend.
Ann Selzer has earned a reputation as “Iowa poll queen” and the “best pollster in politics” for decades conducting Des Moines Register polls.
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“We don’t have as much data as we would like about why this is happening,” he told MSNBC’s “The Weekend.”
“But our consensus among journalists who work in this field is that the abortion ban went into effect last summer… I think it has made people interested in voting.”
Iowa hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since Barack Obama in 2012, and Harris’ campaign dismissed it as an easy GOP victory.
Like the polls, betting markets have also tightened in recent days, thanks in large part to that pro-Harris Iowa poll.
As recently as Halloween, around 60 percent of bettors on platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket and Predictit were convinced Trump was going to win.
Trump’s odds are now no better than 54 percent on all three websites. In fact, Harris is a 56 to 48 percent favorite on Predictit.
The final DailyMail.com/JL Partners national poll before Election Day showed Trump leading Harris by three percentage points nationally.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows Trump trending upward, with support at 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent.
