Top pollster Nate Silver has released his long-awaited final prediction of the 2024 election hours before polls close across the United States.
And he says he’s “literally closer than tossing a coin” as what could be the closest election in U.S. history comes to an end Tuesday.
After 80,000 model simulations, Silver has Democrat Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in most matchups.
“The race is literally closer than flipping a coin: Empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’ 50.015 percent,” Silver said Tuesday morning.
According to their model, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015% of simulations compared to 49.985% for Trump. That’s equivalent to Harris winning 40,012 simulations compared to Trump’s 39,718.
“When I say the odds are as close to 50/50 as possible, I’m not exaggerating,” Silver continued.
Trump will watch Election Day results from his Florida home
He went on to say that he had never seen “anything like this” in all his years of election prediction, including five presidential elections and nine general elections.
The outlying races were 269 – 269 Electoral College ties that eventually resulted in Trump victories due to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives’ involvement in the process in this specific scenario.
The close race is one of the closest in history and will likely be decided by a couple thousand votes in a few swing states, as indicated by pollsters’ final prediction.
Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan will be closely watched today as the votes come in.
Those states are the crucial swing states that will ultimately decide the outcome.
The analysis found that on Nov. 5, Harris led Trump in the national polling averages by just one point, an increase from 48.6% to 47.6%.
It also shows that the Republican has an advantage in all the critical swing states except Michigan, where he is 1.2 points behind, and Wisconsin, where he is one point behind.
Nate Silver speaks at the ‘On The Fault Lines: Decision 2018’ midterm election panel on October 25, 2018 in New York City
A Trump supporter holds a sign on Election Day
This is in line with the final predictions of the main electoral models.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 1.2-point lead on Election Day.
Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics presidential voting average has Harris up just a tenth of a percentage point, leading 48.7% to Trump’s 48.6%.
A survey presented data that may scare Republicans ahead of election day.
Kamala Harris has halved Donald Trump’s double-digit lead among male voters to single digits, according to a latest Marist poll.
Voter breakdowns have long shown a gender gap, with women supporting Harris and men supporting Trump. For Harris to regain ground with the male vote would be a worrying sign for the former president.
Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at the Talking Stick Resort Amphitheater, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024, in Phoenix.
Nevada resident wears an “I voted” sticker after leaving the polls
Voters line up to cast their ballots at Allegiant Stadium on November 5, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Americans cast their votes today in the presidential race between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as in multiple state elections.
In early October, Trump had a 16-point lead among men: 57% to Harris’ 41%, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
Now Harris had reduced that figure to just four points: she has 47% compared to Trump’s 51%, according to the latest figures published on Monday.
However, betting markets show favorable odds for Trump.
On the forecasting site Predictit surpassed Kamala Harris last night and rose this morning. The site now gives Trump a 10 percent lead in terms of his chances of winning the election.
It reflects a similar movement on other betting sites such as Polymarket, where the Republican also rose ten points.