Theresa may of mistrust: who will replace PM if she is overthrown?

Boris Johnson has persuaded former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab to become the favorite to follow Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence

Senior Tories jockeying for position to become the next prime minister after 48 MPs forced a no-trust in Theresa May.

Ms. May needs the support of more than 50% of the 315 conservative MPs to remain in office.

In reality, however, even if she wins, but with a small profit margin, she can be forced out of Number 10.

Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab, Fairly unknown outside of Westminster, the bookmakers favorite was to win a leading run-off this morning.

But gambling during the day has reduced the odds Boris Johnson, now 4-1 favorite with many bookmakers.

Boris Johnson has persuaded former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab to become the favorite to follow Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence

Boris Johnson has overtaken former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab (photo) to become the favorite to follow Theresa May if she loses a trust stamp

Boris Johnson has overtaken former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab (photo) to become the favorite to follow Theresa May if she loses a trust stamp

Boris Johnson has persuaded former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab to become the favorite to follow Theresa May if she loses a vote of confidence

Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are also among the leading group with bookmakers

Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are also among the leading group with bookmakers

Sajid Javid also belongs to the leading group with bookmakers

Sajid Javid also belongs to the leading group with bookmakers

Brexiteers Michael Gove and Sajid Javid also belong to the leading group with bookmakers

Raab, a prominent Brexiteer in the campaign of the referendum, was appointed as a Brexit Secretary in July but resigned from the role in November, saying that he could not support Ms. May's deal.

In his letter of resignation to Theresa May on November 15, he wrote: "I understand why you have chosen to pursue the deal with the EU on the proposed conditions, and I respect the different views expressed in good faith by all our colleagues are being taken in. & # 39;

Raab, 44, is the deputy for Esher and Walton since he was elected in 2010. The son of a Jewish father born in the Czech Republic who came to Great Britain in 1938 is married and has two children.

Several bookmakers then have different combinations of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid as second, third and fourth favorites.

Boris Johnson is the best-known candidate outside the world of politics, and has since become known for panel shows such as Have I Got News For You before he became mayor of London.

Andrea Leadsom, who raced in the last race race, could also run

Andrea Leadsom, who raced in the last race race, could also run

Amber Rudd is also one of the pursuers

Amber Rudd is also one of the pursuers

Andrea Leadsom, who ran in the last leadership race, and Amber Rudd also belong to the pursuers

Penny Mordaunt is also a contender

Penny Mordaunt is also a contender

Just like Jacob Rees-Mogg, who took the challenge first

Just like Jacob Rees-Mogg, who took the challenge first

Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who took the challenge, are contenders

Colorful Old Etonian Johnson was one of the main players in the 2017 leave campaign and resigned from the cabinet after the Checkers summit in July.

He was heavily tipped as David Cameron's successor, but he condemned himself from the 2016 Leadership competition after Michael Gove made a bid on the top track at the last minute.

Who is in the frame?

Current average chances on the next Tory leader

  • Dominic Raab 9/2
  • Sajid Javid 5/1
  • Boris Johnson 6/1
  • Michael Gove 6/1
  • Jeremy Hunt 7/1
  • David Davis 9/1
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg 9/1
  • Amber Rudd 16/1
  • Penny Mordaunt 16/1
  • Andrea Leadsom 25/1

Johnson compared his former late night binges or chorizo ​​and cheese in a diary for the spectator. and recent weight loss at the Brexit: "We know that we need to make some changes if we want to leave the EU. & # 39;

Johnson refused to exclude Theresa May for her premiership during a weekend interview, and said that the British people should not underestimate the deep sense of personal responsibility that I feel for Brexit.

Mr. Johnson, 54, who was London Mayor for eight years, recently announced his divorce with his wife Marina Wheeler, a human rights lawyer.

Michael Gove, third favorite at 7-1 with Ladbrokes, the last days seemed to disappear from the game.

While other high-ranking members of the Cabinet allegedly maneuvered to replace Ms. May if she had lost the final deferred Commons Brexit vote, Mr. Gove said it was "highly unlikely." was that he would stand as a future leader of the Conservative Party.

Veteran MP David Davis can be seen as a caregiver & # 39; candidate to come through Brexit

Veteran MP David Davis can be seen as a caregiver & # 39; candidate to come through Brexit

The old cabinet member Jeremy Hunt is also in the list

The old cabinet member Jeremy Hunt is also in the list

Veteran MP David Davis and former cabinet member Jeremy Hunt are also on the list

That apparent restraint may have something to do with his previous bruising experience in a Tory leadership race.

In June 2016, Mr. Gove, who was campaign leader for Boris Johnson's failed attempt to follow David Cameron, withdrew his support on the morning that Mr. Johnson declared and threw his own hat instead.

He was third in the first round of voting, behind the eventual winner Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom.

Minister of Defense Gavin Williamson is a 40/1 outsider

M. Gove, 51, was born in Edinburgh, studied English at Oxford and was a journalist before he became MP.

Sajid Javid is 8-1 with a lot of bookmakers. In his interview with the viewer, Sajid Javid signaled his leadership ambitions by stating that he wanted the Tories to be the party of social mobility.

On Wednesday he said he supported Theresa May in the game, but he could still throw his hat in the ring if she loses the first vote.

The chance that Javid gets the top job is currently 8/1, according to Ladbrokes. He was not in the 2016 leader race, but has since been one of the favorites in Westminster to succeed Mrs. May.

Javid, 49, who stayed behind during the referendum, but has since positioned himself as a regular Leaver, became the prime minister of the home of an ethnic minority background when he was appointed in April 2018.

As the son of a Pakistani bus driver from Rochdale, he was director at Deutsche Bank before he became a member of parliament in 2010. He is married to four children.

Theresa May has today promised to challenge the confidence of everything she has

Theresa May has today promised to challenge the confidence of everything she has

Theresa May has today promised to challenge the confidence of everything she has

How can Theresa be deposed as a Tory leader?

A Tory leadership contest can be mentioned in two ways: if the leader resigns or if MPs force and win a vote of no confidence in them.

It is not the same as a vote of confidence in the government – which is happening at the bottom of the Commons and concerns all members of parliament.

To cancel & # 39; not trust & # 39; is the responsibility of the Chairman of the Committee of 1922, which includes all backbench conservative MPs.

Chairman Graham Brady is obliged to cast a vote when 15 percent of Tory MPs call him to ask one – currently 48 MPs.

The process is secret and only Sir Graham knows how many letters he has received.

Once activated, the mood can be organized very quickly.

The no-confidence vote is purely whether the leader must stay in place or not, instead of a match.

Crucially, if the incumbent gets more votes than its opponent, they can not be challenged for 12 months.

The procedure was last used in 2003 when Iain Duncan Smith was removed as a Tory leader.

If the leader is expelled, they usually stay as prime minister until a successor is appointed and ready to be confirmed by the Queen.

Each MP – apart from the deposed leader – is eligible to participate in the next competition.

Conservative MPs hold a number of ballots to put the list of contenders in two, with the lowest placed candidate dropping out in every round.

The last two candidates are then offered to Tory membership in general for an election.

Some activists have asked for changes so that it is easier for participants to reach the final stage.

They have suggested that membership should choose between candidates who receive support from at least 20 other MPs.

Outside the top four, Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeremy Hunt is on 7/1 with some bookmakers.

He rushed back to the Prime Minister today and tweeted: "I'm going to support Theresa May tonight. As PM the hardest work you can imagine now and the last thing the country needs is a damaging and long-term leadership contest. & # 39;

Despite his support, however, the 51-year-old MP for South West Surrey would be seen as a likely candidate if a leadership election were to take place.

Mr. Hunt has been a cabinet member since 2010 and held the positions of secretary for culture, media and sports, health secretary and, since Boris Johnson's resignation, Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Veteran Tory David Davis could also throw his hat into the ring of every run-off leadership.

He is the favorite choice of many hard Brexiteers and is seen as a safer pair of hands than Mr. Johnson.

He could also promote a carer to look through the Brexit before he stands up.

It is unlikely that the choice of supporters will remain within the Tory party – and was previously rejected by the Tory members in the race against David Cameron in 2005.

Former Minister of the Interior Amber Rudd has also been suggested by some in the party.

A Remainer, she is popular with conservative MPs as the voice of Toryism in Cameron style.

Mrs. Rudd is still seen as a contender despite her resignation in the Windrush scandal – and she got an extra boost in her good life as a result of her return to the cabinet as secretary Work and Pensions on Friday evening.

She is heavily hampered by a small majority in her constituency Hastings and could not unite the Tory party in a sudden match about the Brexit negotiations.

A possible dark horse in the race is Penny Mordaunt, who is not well known to the public, but is seen as a contender in Westminster.

It is said that she is deeply concerned about Ms May's Brexit deal, but she has resigned from the cabinet.

Jacob Rees-Mogg is another possibility as a candidate for an & outsider & # 39; in Corbyn style.

The chairman of the European research group of Eurosceptic Tory backbenchers, Mr. Rees-Mogg, was one of the most fierce critics of Ms. May in her own party.

In a joint statement with his ERG delegate today, he said: & # 39; Theresa May's plan would overturn the government if handed over. But our party will not rightly tolerate it.

"Conservatives must now answer whether they want to come closer to an election under the leadership of Mrs. May. She has to go in the national interest. & # 39;

What can happen to Theresa May afterwards when she is confronted with a vote of confidence?

Theresa May fights for her political survival today as Tory rebels led to a vote of confidence in her premiership.

If she wins, she will remain as Tory leader and prime minister to complete the Brexit talks and try to get a deal.

And if she loses, she would have to stay in number ten for weeks as a zombie & # 39; Prime Minister, until her warring party chooses a new leader.

Why is Theresa a vote of confidence?

The contest was set in motion because at least 48 Tory MPs sent a letter of confidentiality to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Committee of 1922 – the body that represents Tory MPs.

Sir Graham is obliged to cast a vote if 15 percent of the Tory MPs ask him to ask for one – currently 48 MPs.

How does today's vote take place?

The vote of confidence takes place from 18.00 to 20.00 tonight. Tory MPs vote with their secret ballot papers in a box placed in a room in Parliament, and they can only vote for these two hours.

How many MPs should Theresa possibly win?

There are 315 Tory MPs eligible to vote and the Prime Minister needs a simple majority to stay as a leader – which means 158 is the magic number.

What happens if Theresa May wins?

If Theresa May wins today, she can not cope with a new challenge for 12 months – which means she can stay and finish Brexit.

Ms. May has vowed to stay as leader when she wins the victory tonight with only one, but her critics at the Tory backbenches have warned that if 80 or more MPs vote against her, her position as Premier will be untenable.

What happens if Theresa loses?

When Theresa May loses, she has to resign as a conservative party leader and she is not allowed to participate in the leadership contest.

But she will have to stay prime minister while the warring Tory MPs decide who will be her successor – making her a zombie leader.

She stands for the humiliating prospect of being defeated tonight, but tomorrow to travel to Brussels for a crunch EU summit where the Brexit is on the agenda.

Or she could immediately stop and hand over to a leader of a caretaker – with her de facto assistant sheriff David Lidington who was tipped to be the man to fulfill this role.

How does the Tory leadership contest work?

Each MP – apart from the deposed leader – is eligible to participate in the next competition.

Conservative MPs hold a number of ballots to put the list of contenders in two, with the lowest placed candidate dropping out in every round.

The last two candidates are then offered to Tory membership in general for an election.

It is generally assumed that the candidate Brexiteer will be the winner when it comes to a vote from the overwhelming Eurosceptic membership.

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