There are already enough budgets: Reeves must stop the pressure and start making difficult decisions, says ALEX BRUMMER

When is a Budget not a Budget? If this (highly unlikely) were a preview of Christmas cookies, then the answer would presumably be: When you call it something else.

Rachel Reeves says she will not present a tax-increasing budget in the spring, but will instead issue a statement to MPs along with new tax forecasts.

But the Chancellor has already earned a reputation for dancing on pinheads, which does not inspire much confidence.

When Reeves gave his statement about “fixing the foundations” on July 30 this year, with his astonishing discovery of a £22 billion black hole, he did not hesitate to draw ‘savings’ amounting to £5.5 billion in the current financial year and £8.2 billion in 2025-26.

This included scrapping the winter fuel allowance for pensioners, canceling welfare schemes and cutting up to £800m for AI research at the University of Edinburgh.

What the Chancellor has not ruled out in the spring is a further restriction on public spending should the Office for Budget Responsibility consider that it is not on track to meet its fiscal targets.

That seems likely given data showing the economy is stagnating rather than expanding.

Falling production means lower tax revenues, higher welfare bills and more debt. The March 26 statement to MPs may still come ahead of a new public spending review promised for July.

Confused? Most people will be. The nation may only receive one official budget a year, but there will be no shortage of financial statements and mid-course corrections. You have to watch the Labor words.

No increase in National Insurance was reinterpreted as no employment tax on workers. Imposing a £25bn National Insurance charge on employers was fine.

One consequence of hitting employers so hard is that the Chancellor is now reconsidering the second stage of the pensions review.

The first part involved merging funds and releasing them to invest in the UK.

The second stage focused on whether automatic enrollment in defined contribution plans is enough to generate a comfortable retirement.

Currently, 8 percent of income goes to such funds and a minimum of 3 percent comes from the employer.

But having brought National Insurance to employers, Reeves now thinks imposing more pain on businesses may not be wise.

This seems to be another case of postponing difficult decisions, which could eventually increase the burdens on the Public Treasury.

The concern with all of this is a lack of preparation for the unexpected. The financial crisis, pandemics and the war in Ukraine demonstrated how events can override the best political intentions.

A nation that pays its highest taxes in peacetime will not want to see the Chancellor digging deeper into the pockets of citizens and businesses. But closing the door doesn’t make sense.

creative tension

The arrival of Paddington Bear filmmaker Canal+ turned out to be a failure rather than a boost for the London market.

There may be technical reasons for the share price drop (French tracking funds sold their holdings), but it hasn’t been the expected vote of confidence.

Support for the creative industries in Britain – which account for up to 10 per cent of national income – is essential. UK creative groups, including publishers and authors, see a major threat to the exclusivity of their output on the horizon.

The use of AI to replicate word patterns, music bars, movie clips and the like, in violation of copyright, is a huge threat.

The same problem was highlighted when Google, in its early days, stole fragments of published works and when pirates attacked songbooks.

The Government promises a consultation. Knowing the speed at which such reviews are carried out, there is a danger that by the time Whitehall becomes aware of a complex legal and creative issue, the bird will have already flown.

There must also be concern that as Labor embraces big tech, as incoming UK investors, they will treat Silicon Valley to children’s clothing at the expense of art and originality.

That should never happen.

Lost bags

Here’s a little technology to cheer you up. British Airways will install Apple AirTags in its baggage handling systems with the aim of speeding up the process of locating and delivering wayward bags.

That could reduce the cost for the carrier and ease anxiety for travelers. It should not be an excuse to lower performance standards.