If Donald Trump hopes to become the first president since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms, his campaign must make a number of changes, a leading political analyst has warned.
Douglas E. Schoen, who has worked for both Bill Clinton and Mike Bloomberg, gave the forecast on Saturday. Opinion piece written for the Daily Breezehours after appearing in Fox News to provide a similar view.
The Democratic strategist said he would still “bet on Trump” despite Harris’s recent slim lead, a stance he reiterated in the op-ed, with some caveats.
Above all, he said, Trump needs to stay focused on the issues at hand, while working harder to tie Harris to a languishing administration that only 39 percent of Americans approve of, according to recent Gallup polls.
If Trump reorients his campaign to focus on issues where Harris and Joe Biden have failed to make progress (such as the economy, immigration, crime and foreign policy), it will draw attention to Trump’s and Vice President Harris’s records.
If Donald Trump hopes to become the first president since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms, his campaign must make a number of changes, a political analyst warned Saturday.
Douglas E. Schoen, 71, made the statement Saturday in an op-ed written for the Daily Breeze, hours after appearing on Fox News to offer a similar view.
“Furthermore, doing so would force Harris to defend the Biden administration’s record in key areas,” Schoen wrote, specifically citing “inflation, the rising cost of living, and record numbers of illegal immigrant crossings.”
‘With more than six-in-ten (62 percent) of voters disapproving of Biden’s handling of immigration, and a similar 60 percent disapproving of the administration’s handling of the economy, forcing Harris to defend her record should be the Trump campaign’s top priority.’
References to specific forward-looking policies, such as plans to accelerate job creation through lower corporate taxes, would “put Harris on the defensive,” Schoen added, as would a possible extension of tax cuts Trump already made in 2017, he said.
Schoen went on to point out how Trump, who once enjoyed a sizable lead over Joe Biden, now trails Harris in most major polls, with the conservative six points down in the latest Morning Consult poll.
He went on to deny that such advantages are far from “insurmountable,” before pointing to state statistics, particularly in key states, that he said will decide the election.
Schoen cited a RealClearPolitics poll showing Harris with a slight lead in three battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
He also addressed two other states aligned with Trump: Arizona and Georgia.
“Neither candidate’s lead in any state is greater than two points,” said Schoen, who worked for both Bill and Hillary Clinton, of how such differences are “within the margin of error.”
There, the Democratic strategist said he would still “bet on Trump” despite the slight lead seen recently by Harris, a stance he reiterated in the op-ed, albeit with some caveats.
This, he added, shows that the race “remains uncertain,” even after a debate that “was undoubtedly a better night for Harris than for Trump.”
Former adviser to President Clinton and New York Mayor Bloomberg went on to reiterate that even after a one-sided debate, there was no major shift in the polls, allowing Trump an opportunity to rectify those mistakes.
This comes as nearly two-thirds of voters feel the country is on the wrong track, he said, pointing to the results of a recent New York Times/Siena poll.
The poll, he wrote, found that 52 percent of Americans believe Harris represents “more of the same,” while 49 percent thought Trump exemplifies a “major shift.”
With that in mind, Schoen detailed how “tying Harris to the Biden administration will likely prove effective” and that with more than 62 percent of voters disapproving of Biden’s handling of immigration — and 60 percent disapproving of his handling of the economy — an attack on Harris’ record should be Trump’s next move.
He then explained how this would be a departure from the strategy Trump used during the recent debate, in which he said the politician spent most of his time speaking directly to his already established base of supporters.
That was a mistake in Schoen’s view, who said that such “rhetoric may excite voters who were already planning to vote for the former president, but it does little to convince” others who may remain undecided.
“Trump’s intense polarization and fiercely loyal base mean he can win by eschewing an issue-based campaign in favor of incendiary and divisive rhetoric that appeals to a narrow bloc of voters,” Schoen went on to admit.
A week earlier, Schoen, who has served as an adviser to Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Mike Bloomberg, made an appearance on the network to discuss Trump’s debate performance and how he believed it was not the proverbial nail in the coffin that others had suggested.
“But the easiest path for Trump to return to the presidency is to focus on the issues, force Kamala Harris to defend the Biden administration’s record and appeal to moderates in the key states that will decide this election.”
Hours earlier, he appeared on Fox News to talk more about what to expect from key states like North Carolina, where Harris has a slight lead.
“But if I had to make a bet, I’d bet on Donald Trump,” he said, citing how the former president “closes well” and that “reluctant Trump voters tend to come out on Election Day.”
“This election is as close as it can get,” Schoen told Republican pollster Justin Wallin on Saturday’s “Cavuto Live.”
“And I think Kamala Harris is recognizing that.”
A week earlier, he made an appearance on the network to discuss Trump’s performance in the debate and how he believed it was not the proverbial nail in the coffin that others had indicated.
There are 44 days left until the 2024 presidential elections.
