While solar power is growing at an extremely fast pace, in absolute terms, the use of natural gas for electricity production has continued to outpace that of renewables. But that looks set to change in 2024, as the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) has Run the numbers In the first half of the year, wind, solar and batteries were found to be installed at a pace that dwarfs new natural gas generators. And the gap is expected to widen dramatically before the year is out.
Solar and batteries are booming
According to EIA figures, about 20 gigawatts of new capacity was added in the first half of this year, with solar accounting for 60 percent of that amount. More than a third of solar additions occurred in just two states, Texas and Florida. Two projects with an estimated capacity of more than 600 megawatts came online, one in Texas and the other in Nevada.
Next up are batteries: An additional 4.2 gigawatts of battery capacity was added in the United States during this period, accounting for more than 20 percent of total new capacity (the EIA considers batteries to be the equivalent of a generating source, since they can send electricity to the grid on demand, even if they can’t do so continuously). Texas and California alone accounted for more than 60 percent of these additions; add Arizona and Nevada and you have 93 percent of installed capacity.
The clear pattern here is that batteries are installed where solar power is located, allowing power generated during the peak of the day to be used to meet demand after sunset. This will help existing solar plants avoid reducing power output during off-peak periods in the spring and fall. In turn, this will improve the economic justification for installing additional solar in states where their output can already regularly outstrip demand.
Wind power, by contrast, is advancing at a more sedate pace, with just 2.5 GW of new capacity during the first six months of 2024. And, likely for the last time this decade, additional nuclear power was added to the grid, at the fourth 1.1 GW reactor (and second recently built) at the Vogtle site in Georgia. The only other additions were from natural gas-fired facilities, but they amounted to just 400 MW, or barely 2 percent of total new capacity.
The EIA has also projected capacity additions through the end of 2024 based on what is in the pipeline, and the overall picture is not changing much. However, the pace of installation is picking up as developers rush to get their project online within the current fiscal year. The EIA expects just over 60 GW of new capacity to be installed by the end of the year, with 37 GW of that to be in the form of solar. Battery growth continues at a blistering pace, with 15 GW expected, or about a quarter of total capacity additions for the year.
Wind power will add 7.1 GW of new capacity and natural gas 2.6 GW. Add to this the contribution from nuclear power and 96 percent of the additional capacity by 2024 is expected to be carbon-neutral. Even if we choose to ignore additional batteries, the fraction of carbon-emitting capacity being added is still extremely small – just 6 percent.
Gradual changes in the network
Obviously, these numbers represent the peak output of these sources. In a given year, solar produces about 25 percent of its rated capacity in the United States, and wind about 35 percent. The former figure will likely decline over time as solar becomes cheap enough to make economic sense in places that don’t get as much sunlight. In contrast, wind’s capacity factor may increase as more offshore wind farms are completed. In the case of natural gas, many of the newer plants are being designed to operate erratically so that they can provide power when renewables are producing less.
A clearer picture of what is happening emerges when looking at the generation sources that are being retired. In the US, 5.1 GW of capacity was taken off the grid in the first half of 2024, and apart from 0.2 GW of “other”, all of that capacity was fuelled by fossil fuels, including 2.1 GW of coal capacity and 2.7 GW of natural gas. The latter includes a large 1.4 GW natural gas plant in Massachusetts.
