The total number of unemployed goes to 3 million euros in the worst slump since the 1980s – and that is before the leave scheme ends
- Official job data to be expected on Tuesday shows the unemployment rate at 3 million
- It is believed that up to 60,000 more people claim unemployment benefits
- The government leave scheme expires in full on October 31
Unemployment will rise to the three million mark this week, even before the leave scheme ends.
Key data expected on Tuesday is expected to show employment levels heading towards depths unprecedented since the 1980s.
It is believed that up to 60,000 more people claim unemployment benefits as job losses increase.
Economists say unemployment is already shooting up with the help of both main measures
The government job retention scheme to help the paid workforce will be withdrawn and will expire completely on October 31.
Economists say unemployment is already skyrocketing with the help of both main measures – the number of applicants and the LFS.
George Buckley, UK chief economist at Nomura, warned: ‘The current rise is the calm before the storm.
“Not only is the job retention scheme ending, but there are half a million people who say they are in work but don’t get paid. The danger is that they will end up in the unemployment figures. ‘
Peter Dixon, UK chief economist at Commerzbank, predicts an increase in the number of plaintiffs to between 55,000 and 60,000, bringing the total to between 2.65 million and 2.66 million.
Since the virus-related lockdown in March, this figure is up 112.2 percent or 1.4 million.
The number of applicants includes some low-paid people on in-work benefits, so it is an imperfect measure of unemployment.
Some economists prefer to rely on the Labor Force Survey, which gives the total number of unemployed people for the second quarter of the year next week.
This currently stands at 1.35 million. The independent Bureau of Budget Responsibility predicts that it will average more than 10 percent of the workforce next year, increasing the total by about two million people to 3.35 million.
On Thursday, the Bank of England lowered its unemployment forecast to 9% of the labor force
On Thursday, the Bank of England lowered its unemployment forecast to 9 percent of the labor force. That would be lower than the 12 percent rate after the severe economic recession in the 1980s.
Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research, said: “ There has been a drop in layoffs in the industries hardest hit by the coronavirus – such as retail, airlines, tourism and hospitality – but the bottleneck will come this fall when the leave scheme ends. . That will open the floodgates. ‘
The figures for the gross domestic product for the three months to June will be released on Wednesday. During the three months to May, GDP plunged 19.1 percent compared to the three months to April.
Consensus Economics, which gathers all major projections from city institutions, said the median estimate is that GDP as a whole will decline by 9.2 percent in 2020 and recover by 5.9 percent in 2021.
The EY ITEM Club, which uses the computer model of the Treasury’s economy, looks darker. The summer forecast lowered a previous forecast from minus 8 percent this year to one of 11.5 percent.
The Bank of England now expects the economy as a whole to collapse 9.5 percent by 2020, compared to its earlier estimate of 14 percent.