Former President Trump is increasingly likely to become the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to win New York.
According to a recent poll by Emerson College, President Biden leads Trump by just seven points in the famously liberal Empire State, a slim margin that leaves Trump within striking distance.
In New York, circumstances are auspicious for the Republican Party. There has been a groundswell of support for Trump after his conviction in the hush money trial, which many New Yorkers, including moderates and some liberals, have seen as a weapon of justice.
A Dailymail.com poll conducted after his conviction found that Trump’s approval received a six-point increase.
Trump, a New York native, has also improved his chances in the all-Democratic state by taking inspiration from Reagan’s campaign playbook.
There has been a groundswell of support for Trump after his conviction in the hush money trial, which many New Yorkers, including moderates and some liberals, have seen as a weapon of justice; Pictured: Trump at a rally in the South Bronx.
Trump has also improved his chances in an all-Democratic state by taking inspiration from Reagan’s campaign playbook; Pictured: Reagan at a campaign stop in the South Bronx before the 1980 election.
Many Americans argue that Putin was encouraged to invade Ukraine because of Biden’s indecisive stance on Ukraine.
The former president is right to do so because the America of the 1980 presidential election bears striking similarities to the America of today.
In 1980, Reagan confronted incumbent Jimmy Carter, whom many Americans considered irresponsible and weak.
At the time, the country was facing the Iranian hostage crisis, an extremely precarious situation involving some 50 American hostages.
The Soviets had also invaded Afghanistan, a move that hurt Carter, who had recently declared that Afghanistan did not fall within the United States’ defensive perimeter.
Like 2024, 1980 was a year in which there was enormous international turmoil, and many saw that turmoil as the result of Carter’s lax policies.
Similarly, many Americans argue that Putin was encouraged to invade Ukraine because of Biden’s indecisive stance on Ukraine.
As the writer Craig Shirley pointed out in a Fox op-ed, “Several years ago, Biden foolishly said Ukraine was not in America’s defensive perimeter.”
Shirley further noted that Biden’s statement gave “carte blanche to President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.”
The last parallel between 1980 and 2024 is the presence of a wild card candidate at the polls. In 1980, John Anderson ran as a third-party candidate. In 2024, RFK Jr. has prepared a third-party offer
And in 1980, the United States was suffering from the dreaded stagflation, a period of economic turmoil that combined high inflation and high unemployment.
Although the May jobs report painted an optimistic picture of the country’s employment situation, inflation remains high and a critical issue for many voters.
The final parallel between 1980 and 2024 is the presence of a wild card candidate on the ballot who could potentially dilute Democratic votes.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running as a moderate and has little chance of winning the election, but it could end up tilting him in favor of his Republican rival.
John Anderson, a liberal Republican from Illinois, ran as a third-party candidate. After the election, pollsters claimed that Anderson cost both Carter and Reagan votes.
However, Shirley wrote that Anderson “was able to run on the Liberal Party line in 1980, denying Carter these votes.”
Shirley continued: “While Anderson’s presence on the ballot did not cost Carter individual states, it may have helped cost him New York.”
The weekend before the 1980 election, Reagan made a visit to the South Bronx, where he sought to emphasize the failures of the Carter administration and court the votes of disaffected Americans.
Reagan was able to exploit these circumstances to his advantage.
The weekend before the 1980 election, Reagan made a visit to the South Bronx, where he sought to emphasize the failures of the Carter administration and court the votes of disaffected Americans.
During his appearance in the South Bronx, Reagan found himself surrounded by a bellicose audience.
The crowd booed him, and Reagan finally responded, “This is an example of how the federal government can fail.”
But the stoppage of the campaign was not the disaster it initially seemed.
Shirley wrote: “But the incident was not a failure. Reagan was showing compassion toward the more moderate and undecided voters and so he scored a lot of points.’
In late May, Trump took a similar step and visited the South Bronx, where he addressed a diverse crowd in an attempt to appeal to minority voters.
In late May, Trump did something similar to Reagan and visited the South Bronx, where he addressed a diverse crowd of people in an attempt to appeal to minority voters.
At one point during Trump’s Bronx rally, the crowd began chanting “build the wall.”
During his visit, Trump criticized Biden’s record and presented himself as the best president for Black and Hispanic voters.
During his visit, Trump criticized Biden’s record and presented himself as the best president for Black and Hispanic voters.
At one point during the demonstration, the crowd began chanting “build the wall.”
Trump has also promoted himself as a low-ranking candidate who will crack down on crime, an image that could further help him with New York voters.
In 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin made an impressive bid for governor of New York.
Zeldin ran on an anti-crime platform against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul.
Although the Republican did not win, he only lost by 6.4 percentage points, which marked a major failure for the Democrats.
By contrast, in 2018, Cuomo won by a margin of 23.4 percentage points.
Zeldin’s relative success is further proof that Trump has a chance of winning the state.
A New York native, Trump has tried to leverage his experience in the state with local voters. He exalted his New York roots at his rally in the Bronx.
“If one New Yorker can’t save this country,” he said. ‘Nobody can.’
