Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the winner of the 2024 election, after determining that Kamala Harris has met critical objectives for victory.
The 77-year-old American University professor has developed his own electoral model that has correctly predicted every presidential winner since 1984.
It relies on an unorthodox system – one that ignores polls and pundits – based on what he calls the “13 Keys” to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election results and even allowed Lichtman to predict Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome of the 2020 election.
Allan Lichtman, 77, has designed his own electoral model that has correctly predicted every presidential winner since 1984.
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys of The New York TimesLichtman said: ‘These are 13 broad, true or false questions that reflect the strength and performance of the party in the White House.
The 13 keys include: midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate, needs to lose six of them to be declared the loser under the model.
As of last month, he had only lost three positions: Party Mandate/Midterm Election Gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.
Two other key issues seemed unsettled weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with the candidates: the charisma of the current president and that of the challenger.
Allan said the White House party gained House seats between the midterm elections, claiming that Democrats did better than expected in 2022 even though they still lost House seats, meaning the key to gains in the midterm elections is false.
He goes on to explain that a fake password is good for Donald Trump.
The incumbency key covers the incumbent president who is running for re-election.
“Biden dropped out of the race, costing Democrats this key opportunity; it’s false,” he told the paper.
Had Biden remained in the race, Democrats would have held on to the incumbency, according to Allan’s model.
The White House party avoided a primary — the third key — as Allen explained how Democrats “got smart” and united behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
This means that the key is certain: get Harris out of the starting line in the race.
Since there is no third-party contender with RFK Jr. dropping out of the race and no other third-party candidate comes close to the 10 percent polling threshold needed to turn this key, it means it is true.
Allan said the short-term economy (key number five) is strong because it is not in a recession, making the key true.
Long-term economic growth during the current presidential term has been at least as good as the previous two terms, Allan said, going on to explain how growth during Biden’s term is far superior to that of the previous two terms.
This, according to the model, means that the key is true.
The seventh key – policy shifts – comes into play because the White House has made significant changes to domestic policy, Allan said.
“Going back to the Paris Agreement on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the infrastructure bill, the inflation reduction bill and the climate change bill – clearly the key is right,” he added.
Although there have been sporadic protests, there has been nothing like the massive amount of social unrest needed to turn the eighth key.
So the key to social unrest is true, according to the creator of the model.
The scandal key (Allan’s stated favorite) has been held true in his eyes as he explained how Republicans have been desperately trying to pin a scandal on Biden, but nothing has worked.
He went on to comment on how the controversy surrounding his son Hunter Biden does not count as part of the scandal, as it has to revolve around the president himself, and not a family member.
Allan predicted that ‘the Democrats will keep the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States’
By the end of Allan’s prediction race, Donald Trump had lost, making the Democrats this year’s winner.
The key to a candidate’s charisma is a “high threshold,” as the individual must be a “unique candidate in his or her generation and broadly inspiring.”
But in Allan’s eyes, Harris hasn’t met that standard, making the key false.
The challenger’s charisma is the eleventh key, but although some people see Trump as a god, he only attracts a small audience, which means the key is true.
Based on these key results alone, Allan predicted that “the Democrats will keep the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.”
However, foreign policy developments could change the outcome with the Biden administration deeply involved in the war in Gaza.
“But even if both foreign policy cues turned out to be false, that would mean there would only be five negative cues, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
Allan said his system allows him to ‘predicting the outcome of the popular vote based solely on historical factors and not on polls of candidate preferences, tactics, or campaign events.’
“There are some unpredictable factors,” he said while promoting the prediction on YouTube.
He bristles at commentators who point to the one time in recent decades when his model doesn’t hold up: the disputed 2000 election, when Florida courts halted a recount in a race in which Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote against George W. Bush. (It also goes back to Lincoln’s election in 1860.)
“It was not my mistake… It was Florida that made a mistake, that based on the intent of the voters… because of the ballots that were thrown out, that wrote Gore in and punched Gore in, Gore should have won that election in a landslide,” Allan said in his YouTube Channel.