When Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his acolytes decided to torpedo a long-standing regional norm and directly attack Israel on Saturday night, they no doubt thought they had chosen the moment perfectly.
But they appear to have made an egregious strategic error.
After Hamas raped, massacred and kidnapped some 1,400 Israelis on October 7, most of the world looked at Israel with sympathy. Jerusalem set out to destroy Hamas and bring its own hostages home, as it was morally obligated to do.
But the narrative soon changed. As more images emerged of the terrible human cost of the war, especially for Gazan civilians, opinion changed.
The Muslim world was outraged, while the Western far left slandered Israel as uniquely evil. With disconcerting speed, the Jewish state seemed to become almost a pariah.
Iranian politicians at an open session in Tehran’s parliament as Iran launched a horrific drone attack on Israel.
Iranian news broadcast about rocket fire towards Israel.
Drones launched in a military exercise in an undisclosed location in Iran (File image)
Human suffering in other conflicts does not matter. It doesn’t matter that Hamas hides its fighters among the civilian population. Israel was found guilty, as it always is.
The mullahs of Iran were watching, as they always do. For them, this was an opportunity.
As a Shiite Persian state in a largely Sunni Arab region, Iran (like Israel itself) is isolated. (In fact, the two countries have more in common than they would admit.)
With Israel portrayed as the bully of the Middle East, the mullahs could present themselves as confronting it, working to divide Israel from its neighbors and seeking the approval of millions of Arabs frustrated by their own leaders’ growing friendliness toward the Jewish state.
Finally, on April Fool’s Day, came the pretext for Iran to openly attack Israel: Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria, which killed seven senior Iranian military officers, including a top commander.
Retaliation, of course, came over the weekend, when Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel.
The result is that, once again, Iran now faces a strong alliance of Israel, the democracies and several Arab states.
This morning, Gaza is off the front pages and it is much more difficult to defend the need for military sanctions on Israel.
How can you deny military equipment to a country that has just suffered a massive attack by the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism?
Israel can now also claim that it is more imperative than ever to destroy Hamas – Tehran’s genocidal proxy in Gaza – not to mention the other Iranian-backed militias, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen.
So what happens next? It was Iran’s decades-long campaign of near-relentless violence that helped prompt several of its Arab neighbors to sign peace treaties and normalization agreements with Israel. The attack will only solidify their fears.
But Khamenei, 84, is dying. While the succession to his son, Mojtaba, appears more or less assured, high-ranking clerics are already vying for positions under a new regime.
Many will reason that being tough on Israel is the surest way to protect them. The future in that sense seems bleak.
Back in Israel, Cabinet War Minister Benny Gantz has said that Jerusalem, when the time is right, will “demand a price” for Iran’s attack. Some fear they could attack Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
This would risk a broader war, but many still believe Israel would be within its rights to do so. One more proof that the mullahs have made a mistake.