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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football ranks doesn’t always tell the full story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that deserve a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Drake London’s PPG WR23 Ranking Was a Lie
A huge Week 18 boosted his stats, but London was the 23rd WR in Fantasy points per game during the Fantasy season (Weeks 1-17), so he couldn’t live up to his high ADP.*
London was the WR9 in expected fantasy pointssandwiched between CeeDee Lamb and Nico Collins. He was the WR4 in expected fantasy points per route run (minimum 75 targets). London remained hampered by miserable quarterback play – this time for a completely still Kirk Cousins. But there are only three WRs who have drawn targets and converted first downs into a higher route fee than London across 50 career games. He ranked fourth in ESPN Open Scoring in 2024.
London is an elite wide receiver who has been held back, but could finally have a quarterback in 2025.
*London finished as WR9 in overall fantasy points, but using average is better than volume when evaluating fantasy value. Put another way, Tee Higgins finished as WR18 overall, while Garrett Wilson was the WR10. It’s better if players stay healthy, but Higgins (the WR2 in points per game) clearly helped fantasy managers a lot more than Wilson this season.
Michael Penix Jr. led the league in Launch % highlighted after taking over as starter (while dealing with highest % drop in the league), and its high aDOT and low capture/revolt rates They show incredible promise for production from their pass catchers.. London recorded a huge first reading target share of 45% and a 50% stake in the air shipyards (both would have led the league in 2024) in three games with Penix. London averaged 117 receiving yards and saw six targets in the end zone during that span, which was the same as Ladd McConkey had all season (and more than Brock Bowers).
It’s a small sample size, but London’s yards per carry (3.56) with Penix would have ranked second, and his objectives per route executed (39.4%) I would have ranked first. Penix and London seems like an ideal connection for many years to come.
London is a budding star who appears to finally have a quarterback. He should be selected as a top-10 fantasy receiver again next season despite a disappointing 2024.
Bryce Young’s QB27 rank was a lie
Young finished as QB27 in fantasy points per game all season, but was QB7 for the final six weeks (if we include Week 18). Young looked like a different player after being benchedespecially after Carolina’s bye, when he produced 16 total touchdowns on just three picks in the final seven games. That came with a modest 6.9 YPA, but Young showed a newfound willingness to run, and better weapons in 2025 should lead to greater efficiency; Young suffered the fifth-most lost yards (242) despite missing several games.
Young had just one great pitch. before week 8but he led the league in shot rate big time. after returning as starter. It also received the second lowest position. Billing-worthy pass % and the third-most rushing QB (five) in that 10-game span.
It may be worth noting that Young’s schedule was very favorable down the stretch, but He also led several late campaigns aiming to win the game. (including one against the league’s best defense in Philadelphia) that In the end he fell short thanks to his teammates. Young’s height can always limit him a bit, but he looked much more like a No. 1 overall pick down the stretch. The humble of the young 3.9% TD rate will surely improve in 2025, when will remain the Panthers’ franchise quarterback.
Young is the QB23 in the early morning”expert consensus ranges”, but he will be selected at a higher level come summer.
Brock Purdy’s 20 TD passes were a lie
Purdy ranked third in YPA (8.5) and top 10 in passing yards, but tied for 15th in touchdown throws. Losing Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk didn’t help, as the 49ers’ red zone offense fell from first place in 2023 to the middle of the pack in 2024. Purdy’s TD rate also fell to 4.4% (19th in the league) after leading the NFL in 2022 (6.9%) and 2023 (6.2%). Purdy threw 45.5% fewer touchdowns this season compared to last and attempted more passes.
Purdy attempted the eighth-most passes inside the 10-yard line and the seventh-most inside the five despite missing several games. He added five rushing touchdowns, but Purdy was clearly unlucky to only have 20 passing touchdowns with elite efficiency (8.5 YPA) and that kind of volume in the end zone.
Purdy will continue to benefit from Kyle Shanahan’s system, and the 49ers should be much healthier in 2025 as they face a last-place schedule. coming out of a truly nightmare season. Expect Purdy’s TD% to skyrocket again next year.
Xavier Worthy’s WR40 rank was a lie
Worthy struggled to get going as a rookie, as he was Fantasy’s WR56th after Week 10. But Worthy was the WR25th over the final seven games (rested in Week 18) despite Kansas City acquiring DeAndre Hopkins . Worthy can certainly improve as a route runner and with spatial and timing awareness, but he also suffered from Patrick Mahomes’ struggles throwing the deep ball. Worthy was among the league leaders in % of air yards unreachable.
Worthy’s usage down the stretch was truly elite, as he averaged 10.3 targets and 2.7 carries over his final three regular season games, including a whopping 11 red zone opportunities. He’ll be better in Year 2 and will continue to benefit from playing in an Andy Reid offense with Mahomes as his quarterback. Worthy will see target competition from the returning Rashee Rice, but Travis Kelce will be 36 years old and Hollywood Brown will be an unrestricted free agent.
Worthy had more than a handful of long touchdowns that almost missed this seasonso your final stat line looks like very misleading. He’s someone to target in 2025 fantasy drafts.
James Cook’s 16 rushing touchdowns were a lie
Cook entered the season with just four career rushing touchdowns in 33 games, but tied for the NFL lead in 2024. Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns despite having the 19th most carries. He saw the 12th-most rushing attempts inside the five-yard line and only 45.3% of his team’s carries in the red zone. Outside of Cook, the six running backs who scored at least 13 rushing touchdowns this season averaged 20.8 touches; Cook averaged 14.9. He was the RB27 in expected fantasy points per game, sandwiched between Najee Harris and Alexander Mattison. Teammate Ray Davis impressed as a rookie and should work more in Year 2.
cooking is a good runner who will continue to benefit from playing in an elite offense, but It is very likely that your TD production will decrease. in 2025 if its role remains the same.