A historian who has been called the “Nostradamus” of predicting presidential election winners has dropped a major clue about who he thinks will occupy the White House in 2025.
Allan Lichtman, who has gotten nine of the last 10 elections right, said Thursday in a YouTube livestream that he is getting close to his “final prediction” for the 2024 race.
“You don’t have to be patient much longer. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend… and within a few days the prediction should be ready,” the American University professor said on the broadcast with his son, Sam. “And this will be a final prediction.”
Though he was coy about his final forecast, Lichtman did give a big hint by criticizing a rival pollster, Nate Silver, who recently He said Trump was his favorite.
“I just saw the most absurd prediction today,” Lichtman said, referring to Silver.
According to Nate Silver’s model, former President Donald Trump has an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 elections, vehemently disagrees with Silver’s methodology, perhaps betraying who he thinks has the best chance in this cycle.
“Just a few days ago he said that Kamala Harris would most likely win the election. Now, just a few days later, he changed his mind.”
His first problem with Silver’s latest forecast is that it’s “not a realistic probability.”
“If you flip a coin a million times, 50 percent of the results will be heads and 50 percent tails. But you can’t play an election a million times, you can only play an election once, and in fact it hasn’t even been played because no one has voted. So he just fabricated this probability from the polls,” he said.
Lichtman added that Silver’s model during the 2016 election said Hillary Clinton was overwhelmingly likely to beat Trump.
In the months and years since Trump’s surprise victory, Silver said he gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning, which was far more than other media outlets believed was possible.
But Lichtman does not accept that explanation.
“Predictions mean nothing because he denies them if he is wrong and proclaims them if he is right,” he argued.
Nate Silver, pictured, believed Hillary Clinton had an overwhelming chance of winning in 2016 based on polls. Lichtman believes his model is superior because it doesn’t rely on polls at all.
Lichtman also questioned the very specific figure Silver presented as Trump’s probability of victory: 52.4 percent.
“Is it possible, Sam, to measure the probability of a Trump victory to within tenths of a percentage point?” he asked rhetorically. “That makes it sound scientific, that makes it sound real, that makes it sound like, ‘Oh my God, this guy is so accurate.’ In fact, it’s the exact opposite of accurate.”
Before President Joe Biden dropped out, Lichtman said a lot would have to go wrong for him to lose and that Democrats would be making “a big mistake” if they decided to replace him.
He also said Trump’s 34 felony convictions are unlikely to significantly influence the election.
Lichtman’s first corrected prediction came in 1984 when he said Ronald Reagan would win the presidency.
He also predicted Trump would win in 2016 just over a month before the election, and then accurately predicted Biden would unseat him in 2020.
Lichtman’s system for predicting presidential elections, which he calls the “13 Keys,” has been around since the 1980s.
He says the technique allows him to “predict the outcome of the popular vote based solely on historical factors and not on polls of candidate preferences, tactics or campaign events.”
Silver’s model is certainly influenced by polls, the most recent of which show Trump ahead in six key states.
Another clue from Lichtman about which way he thinks the winds are blowing came when he condemned Trump for his campaign stop at Arlington National Cemetery last Monday.
Trump is pictured at Arlington National Cemetery on Monday, Aug. 26, during a ceremony honoring the sacrifice of Staff Sgt. Nicole Gee. After the visit, Trump’s team posted a video on their TikTok featuring clips from their visit to the cemetery, which is considered a sacred site for the U.S. military.
Arlington National Cemetery is considered a sacred site for the US military and is managed by the Army. Therefore, it is illegal to conduct any kind of campaign activity there.
In an unusually forceful rebuke to the former president, the Army defended a cemetery staffer who confronted Trump aides as they took photos and videos in a restricted area.
“There are those who claim there was a physical altercation with the staff member who, quite appropriately, was trying to stop them from violating federal law and shamelessly using Arlington Cemetery for political purposes,” Lichtman said.
A member of Trump’s team said the employee tried to “physically block” them, adding that a private photographer of his had been granted permission to be on the premises.