This pager runs on two AAA batteries, which, like any battery, could explode, but probably not with as much force and scale as the explosions shown in the alleged explosion videos. Even if this is not the model of pagers and the ones used by Hezbollah run on lithium-ion batteries, which can cause more dangerous explosions, it is still unlikely that a normal pager battery alone could produce explosions that could injure multiple people.
“These explosions aren’t just batteries,” says Jake Williams, vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy, who previously worked for the U.S. National Security Agency. “According to reports, Israeli authorities are likely to have intercepted these pagers and modified them with explosives. This highlights the risks to supply chain security, especially in places where it’s harder to ship technology.”
Williams notes that such an operation would likely involve agents from both the technology distribution and procurement sides of Hezbollah. “You put the supply chain at risk, but you don’t want thousands of explosive beepers floating around Lebanon,” he says. “The mole leads them to exactly the right people.”
Some reports on Tuesday indicated that Hezbollah recently expanded its use of pagers in an attempt to secure communications after Israeli intelligence infiltrated other channels. The Associated Press reported that an “anonymous Hezbollah official” said the group had recently adopted a “new brand” of pagers that “first heated up and then exploded.”
“It is unlikely that a computer attack took place, as the explosive material would likely have had to be inside the pagers to have such an effect,” says Lukasz Olejnik, an independent consultant and visiting senior researcher at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. “Reports mention the delivery of new pagers recently, so perhaps the delivery was compromised.”
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Middle East and North Africa risk management firm Le Beck International, says that if the attack is supply chain-based, then it could have taken years to prepare and involved infiltrating a supplier and placing explosives inside new pagers.
“This is a serious security breach, especially if we are talking about a payload that was placed inside the devices, which I believe is the most likely scenario,” Horowitz said. “This would mean that Israel has managed to infiltrate Hezbollah’s suppliers to the point of delivering hundreds (if not thousands) of devices used for secure communications.”
The incident comes amid an escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months, raising fears of a full-blown war. In the hours leading up to Tuesday’s explosions, Israel He said that his war aims would include allowing 60,000 people to return to northern Israel after being evacuated following Hezbollah attacks, and would not rule out military action.
Horowitz says the incident could be a “prelude to a broader offensive” and possibly aimed at disrupting Hezbollah’s communications networks. Organizing the replacement of a large number of pagers is likely to take some time. Alternatively, Horowitz says, the attack could also have been carried out to show the “scale of Israeli intelligence penetration.”
“This is a high-value operation that would not be used just to cause injury,” Horowitz says.
The operation could have a psychological impact, given that it is possible that bombs could have been hidden undetected in such a modest device. And while Tuesday’s attacks were notably aggressive, it would not be the first time that Israeli intelligence has reported Planted explosives in electronics.