The leaked documents appear to indicate that the US intelligence community knows more about Russia’s war operations than it does about raising new questions from Ukraine about sending about $200 billion in military aid to the region.
The documents, which have been leaked onto the internet in recent days, portray the Russian military as struggling in their war with Ukraine, a war that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
They also seem to show that the intelligence services were compromised because some of the reports contained daily, real-time warnings about the timing and targets of Moscow’s strikes — which enabled the United States to warn their Ukrainian counterparts.
The documents — up to several months old — provide detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies are most at risk, and clues as to how the United States sourced so much classified information in the Kremlin.
The US intelligence on Russia was said to be so good that Ukraine was given two days’ notice of a strike on a drone depot. American spies are also said to have heavily infiltrated the Russian intelligence agency, the GRU – the successor to the KGB – and discovered just how vulnerable Putin’s war effort is.
Leaked documents suggest the US knows more about Putin’s war operations than Zelensky does, which raises questions about the $200 billion in military aid sent to Ukraine.
The Russian battleship Moskva was blown up by Ukrainian missiles last April and sank in the Black Sea, killing hundreds of soldiers.
The trove of leaked documents reinforces a notion that intelligence officials have long acknowledged, namely The New York Times reportedthat the United States has a “clearer understanding of Russian military operations compared to Ukrainian planning”.
While U.S. officials previously estimated Russian losses at 200,000 soldiers, one report puts 189,500 to 223,000 casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action.
With casualties on the Ukrainian side, US officials said there were about 100,000. A report in the leaked documents said that as of February, Ukraine had suffered between 124,500 and 131,000 casualties, with as many as 17,500 killed in action.
Pentagon officials are said to be conducting a massive investigation into the leak. The leaked documents being shared online – at least some of which are believed – consist of images of printed papers.
Classified documents can usually be printed using a secure process, which can make it easier for officials to find the source of the leak.
The documents provide detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies are most at risk, and clues about how the United States obtained so much of the Kremlin’s information.
Although the Biden administration has poured nearly $200 billion into the Ukrainian military, the leak revealed that its stocks have been severely depleted and that air defense ammunition is low.
The documents, which have been posted on sites such as Twitter, have been designated classified and resemble routine updates that the US Army’s Joint Chiefs of Staff would issue daily but not publicly distribute.
They are dated from February 23 to March 1, and provide what appears to be details about the progress of weapons and equipment destined for Ukraine with more precise timelines and amounts than the United States generally provides.
They are not war plans and no details have been given of any planned attack in Ukraine. And some inaccuracies — including estimates of Russian casualties that are far lower than figures reported by US officials — have led some to question the authenticity of the documents.
Assurances about the viability of the US military’s spy apparatus are set to be further hampered by revelations that America’s focus extends far beyond its Russian enemies.
Allied nations, such as South Korea, have also reportedly been spied on by the Pentagon, raising questions about the diplomatic impact the leak could have at a time of deteriorating global relations.
The documents, which were posted on social media sites including Twitter, Discord and Telegram, also highlighted the devastating impact of the war in Ukraine on both sides of the conflict.
Although the Biden administration has poured nearly $200 billion into the Ukrainian military, the leak revealed that its stocks have been severely depleted and that air defense ammunition is low.
But with Russian forces also found to be struggling, reports point to a renewed push backed by Western forces in the coming months.
One of the leaks, posted on Telegram, detailed “a secret plan to prepare and equip nine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the US and NATO for the Spring Offensive”.
The Biden administration has not denied the legitimacy of the leak, but has claimed that some of the documents have been tampered with.
An FBI investigation was launched Friday to determine the source of the leak, but a senior official told the New York Times that tracing the perpetrator could be difficult because so many officials have the necessary security clearances to access the information.
