Few energy analysts enjoy the level of global respect given to Vaclav Smil, distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba and best-selling author of 47 books. Every time Smil posts something new, people in the energy space pay attention. That is certainly the case with his latest publication, a 48-page report titled “Halfway between Kyoto and 2050: net zero carbon emissions a highly unlikely outcome.”
In the report, Smil details the efforts made to date by world governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and considers them wholly inadequate to achieve the goal of net zero emissions by 2050.
“To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050,” Smil writes, “governments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making a rapid and economical transition impossible.”
Among a wide range of important obstacles that must be overcome, Smil highlights the enormous scale of global energy use, the slow pace of energy transitions throughout history and the fact that “major emitters such as the United States, China and “Russia has conflicting interests.” .”
In discussing the slowness of past energy transitions, Smil echoes the thoughts of another respected energy analyst and writer: Daniel Yergin, author of highly successful books such as “The Prize” and “The New Map.” During our interview in marchYergin noted that the transition from burning wood for heating and cooking to using coal, which began in the 15th yearth 19th century Britain – still ongoing. In fact, the world used more wood for energy during 2023 than any other year in history.
Smil highlights the key issue of copper, a vital metal used in almost all electronic devices, cars, appliances and power grids around the world. His report delves into why it will be impossible to produce copper in the quantities needed to make the supposed “transition” a reality, a theme that echoes a growing series of findings by other studies.
Smil estimates that efforts to replace the current 1.35 billion light cars and heavy trucks “would require almost 150 million additional tons of copper over the next 27 years.” “This is equivalent to more than seven years of current annual copper extraction for all industrial and commercial uses of the metal.”
It also notes that “the metal content of copper ores mined in Chile, the world’s main source of this metal, has decreased from 1.41 percent in 1999 to 0.6 percent in 2023, and further deterioration is inevitable. of quality”. Decreasing metal content means a corresponding massive increase in the tonnage of ore that must be extracted and therefore a corresponding cost in disposing of all the additional waste products at terrible environmental cost.
Worse yet, copper is just one of a wide range of critical energy minerals that must also be mined in the coming years to meet the needs of the wind, solar, battery and electric vehicle industries chosen by globalist governments as the preferred solutions. . Metals such as lithium, cobalt, tungsten, antimony, nickel and silver, not to mention a host of rare earths, must reach radically higher production levels for some or all of this transition to work.
Smil also highlights the staggering costs of the planned energy transition, noting that the current US GDP is about $25 trillion, and getting to net zero will cost 20 percent of our GDP, meaning the The United States would have to start spending about $5 trillion a year on decarbonization efforts.. Citing a McKinsey study that estimates the total cost of the energy transition at $275 trillion, Smil posits that inevitable delays and cost overruns not accounted for in that estimate will likely cause the actual cost to increase by 60 percent. , bringing the total to an unimaginable 440 billion dollars. .
Smil’s conclusion that a “rapid and inexpensive transition” is “impossible” belies the narrative favored by transition advocates that the desired end state can be achieved without major sacrifices or reductions in living standards. In fact, we are already beginning to see governments across the Western world demanding such sacrifices.
Prices of all forms of energy have increased dramatically since the policy to Green New Deal subsidies began in earnest with the inauguration of Joe Biden in January 2021. Public pronouncements by politicians in the US, Canada and Europe increasingly include advocating for increasing restrictions on the ability of ordinary citizens to travel tourists and the need for them to live in smaller places. Less comfortable and less prosperous lives to “save the planet.”
To its credit, Smil’s report adds to a growing body of data detailing the enormous costs involved in this forced march toward lower standards of living for all but the privileged elites among us. It should be required reading in all homes and schools.
