In 2025, we will see a fundamental transformation in the language of climate policy. We are going to hear a lot less about “reducing emissions” from scientists and policymakers and a lot more about “phasing out fossil fuels” or “ending coal, oil and methane gas.” This is a good thing. Although scientifically accurate, the phrase “reduce emissions” is too easily used by the fossil energy industry and its advocates to greenwash it. The expression “end coal, oil and methane gas,” on the other hand, maintains the focus on the actions that will contribute the most to solving the climate crisis.
This change in discourse has been initiated by the latest United Nations report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world’s climate scientists say that existing fossil energy The infrastructure is expected to emit the full carbon budget needed to stop global warming at 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. This statement means two things. It means the world cannot develop more coal, oil or gas if we want our planet to remain relatively habitable. And it means that even some already developed fossil fuel deposits will have to be retired before the end of their useful life, as we need to make room in the carbon budget for essential activities such as agriculture.
The international community has already integrated this new science into its global climate governance. The 28th Conference of the Parties, the annual conference of the world’s nations part in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change—called for all countries to contribute to “Moving away from fossil fuels.” Never before in the history of international climate negotiations has the root cause of global warming been clearly named and specifically addressed. The United Nations itself now calls for phasing out coaloil and methane gas.
This new climate language will become widespread in 2025. In her political plans for her second term as President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen fiance not work to reduce EU emissions, but “continue to lower energy prices by moving further and further away from fossil fuels.” The new UK government promised in its manifest that it will retain licenses for new coal and oil exploration, and flatly states that it will “ban fracking forever.” And in France, Macron has explicitly promised to completely end the use of fossil fuels.
Climate policy in the United States will also evolve following Donald Trump’s presidential re-election. Republicans will continue to embrace a “drill, baby, drill” climate agenda, denying the danger or sometimes even the reality of climate change, while advocating for expanding domestic production of crude oil and methane gas. They may try to greenwash their policies by claiming to adopt an “all of the above” energy strategy, but this message will have limited effect. Due to political polarization, Trump’s association with coal, oil and gas will increase Democratic support for phasing out fossil fuels. Before the 2024 electionsFifty-nine percent of Democrats said climate change should be the federal government’s top priority, but only 48 percent said they supported a phase-out. In 2025, most Democrats will begin to support phasing out fossil fuels, especially if climate advocates revive science-based climate messaging, continue to emphasize that clean energy deployment is job creation, and frame the decision to phase out fossil fuels as a form of freedom. that defends our right to a livable future.
With Democrats winning many negative elections and cities and states still pledging to pass climate policies, this shift in the Democratic majority will keep the United States on the map of international climate negotiations, regardless of whether Trump withdraws or no to the United States from the Paris Summit. Agreement, which creates new local alliances with the UK, EU and global south nations demanding international fossil fuel phase-out targets. This bloc can counter the power of petrostates in international climate negotiations. At the very least, incorporating fossil fuel phase-out language will help undermine the greenwashing strategy of current oil and gas company PR, which falsely advertises that the industry is seeking technologies at scale to help “reduce emissions.” ” even as they continue their upstream activities. investments.
Of course, petrostates, along with India and China, will respond to the rhetoric of phasing out fossil fuels. But India can be helped to abandon its domestic coal reserves through near-cost clean energy financing, along with international aid and technology transfers already promised at previous climate conferences. And while its rhetoric may not align with that of the West, China should not be imagined as opposed to climate action. China has enacted the most comprehensive climate policy on the planet, in service of its goal of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2060. If its climate messages remain focused on “emissions,” in light of its plan To continue using fossil fuels, fuels beyond 2030, they are preparing for the shift away from fossil fuels in the next decade by developing clean energy at a truly extraordinary pace.
In 2025, climate discourse will again focus on the message that stopping global warming requires the phasing out of coal, oil and gas. This new consensus will change the politics of climate change and help motivate an urgent race toward an ecologically integrated, clean energy economy, the only economy that guarantees a livable future.