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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football ranks doesn’t always tell the full story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that deserve a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
DeAndre Hopkins’ WR57 rank is a lie
Hopkins is still tied with Jerry Jeudy in fantasy points per game even after his eruption last week thanks to being stuck in Tennessee’s offense for most of the season. Hopkins’ underlying metrics last season suggested he was far from finished, and now he’s Patrick Mahomes’ WR1 in an Andy Reid offense.
Hopkins has seen a target of 25% per route execution rate and has racked up 2.40 yards per route while learning Kansas City’s offense on the fly in two games since joining the Chiefs. He has already recorded the most receptions in a game for a KC wide receiver lined up outside since 2018. DHop route tree has grown in Kansas City, including the crucial ones in the middle. Rashee Rice is out for the rest of the season and the eventual return of JuJu Smith-Schuster is not a threat.
Hopkins has a tough matchup this week when he lined up outside against Patrick Surtain II, but the 32-year-old suddenly has a chance to become a legitimate top-12 fantasy wide receiver down the stretch.
Deebo Samuel Sr.’s WR33 rank is a lie
Samuel Sr. has been a disappointment to Fantasy officials, but he is primed for a big second half if his health cooperates. Samuel had gotten 4.88 YPRR with a 38% target share with Brandon Aiyuk off the field since 2021 before leaving the game against Dallas early with a rib injury (he had seven goals). Those numbers aren’t sustainable, but they are amazing and suggest he can be a fantasy WR1.
Samuel was limited in practice Wednesday, but says the 49ers are “all hands on deck” leaving goodbye. Samuel must regress TD playing in an offense that ranks in the bottom five in red zone TD percentage after leading the league last year and now takes CMC back. He’s also looking for more volume with Aiyuk out for the season.
Samuel’s fantasy value is increasing significantly.
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Trey McBride’s zero touchdown receptions are a lie
McBride leads all pass catchers with the most targets (60) without recording a receiving touchdown this season. He scored a rushing touchdown last week, when he was also tackled inside the three-yard line, and Kyler Murray missed him in the end zone during another play.
Arizona attempted just 20 passes thanks to the game’s script, and the Cardinals’ offense has looked much better the last two weeks while expanding Marvin Harrison Jr.’s route tree. McBride has been the TE3 in fantasy points per game despite of not recording a receiving touchdown, and TD regression is coming. McBride will have a tougher matchup against the Jets this week before Arizona’s bye, but his schedule looks very favorable down the stretch.
Aaron Jones’ two touchdown runs are a lie
Jones is dominating Minnesota’s backfield job, but continues to have bad luck with rushing touchdowns. Jones has the seventh most anticipated rushing touchdowns but he ranks just 30th in rushing touchdowns this season. The Vikings have the seventh-best red zone touchdown percentage (64%), but Jones is just 1-for-7 rushing. inside the five yard line. He converted 50% of those attempts last year.
Minnesota is averaging 26.1 points per game and Jones gets a favorable matchup this week. Jacksonville has allowed more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to runners in the last five games and the fifth-most rushing TDs (11) this season. The Vikings have the third-highest implied team total (26.5 points) and should have a positive game script as favorites. Jones TD Regression starts on Sunday.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s RB37 rank is a lie
Tracy Jr.’s fantasy points per game places him between Zack Moss and Raheem Mostert this season, but he has the upside-down top-15 RB down the stretch now that he’s fully taken over the lead for New York. Tracy Jr. has had a strong role in three parties since Devin Singletary returned, and is growing by the week. Tracy Jr. has averaged 82.6 rushing yards and 5.2 YPC in five games as a starterand is capable of contributing more in the passing game (he played wide receiver in college).
The Giants have become very run-prone the last two games, and this week they have a Carolina defense that allows by far the most fantasy points to running backs. The Panthers have also given up the most rushing yards (132.9) and total touchdowns (15) to RBs this year. The Giants are close to being touchdown favorites in Germany on Sunday, so Tracy Jr. has a delicious matchup. New York then gets three straight defenses that rank in the bottom 10 in RB fantasy points allowed after their bye.
Tracy Jr.’s fantasy range will end up much higher than it is now.