The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Stats say George Pickens’ Week 7 breakout was the real deal

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football ranks doesn’t always tell the full story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that deserve a closer look.

Yes… The numbers lie.

George Pickens’ only touchdown catch is a lie

Pickens has just one touchdown catch despite seeing the third-most red zone targets and the most inside the five-yard line this season. Pickens has the fourth shortest fantasy points percentage of touchdowns among the 36 best WRs. Pickens is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but he is the WR13 in expected fantasy points. An increase in playing time and a quarterback change will help him get closer to those expectations moving forward.

Pickens had a season-high 93% route share last week, when Russell Wilson also gave him a whopping 70% passing yardage share. His passing yards per target were a season high.and he directed all WRs in fantasy usage by a wide margin. Pickens posted a 2.40 YPRR, also had the second-most pass inference penalty yards in the league, and saw two inside-five goals, nearly doubling his total from the previous season (three). he has earned it Target first read rates of 46% and 40% in the last two weeks and ranks sixth in ESPN Open Scoring this season.

Pickens was helped by a lucky bounce and an injury to Sauce Gardner last weekbut it is clear that he will benefit if Wilson takes over. Fields has averaged just 184.3 passing yards this season, down from a career high of 169.1. Wilson has averaged 232.4 career passing yards and has historically been among the league leaders in end zone targets. Pittsburgh will still have plenty of races, but Pickens’ schedule goes from difficult to favorable. The Steelers have faced top-eight defenses in WR fantasy points allowed in four of their last six games, but face bottom-eight opponents in six of seven games after their bye.

Pickens’ stats are misleading, as he has top-20 WR upside going forward.

Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube either wherever you listen.

De’Von Achane’s RB24 rank is a lie

Achane has been a fantasy disappointment, ranking as the RB24 in points per game this season. He left a game after just 11 plays, and Achane is the RB10 in expected fantasy pointsso your role has been incredibly encouraging. Of course, Tua Tagovailoa’s injury has been the main culprit for the lack of production, as Miami has averaged fewer points per game than the last two winless teams and the Bryce Young-led Panthers.

The Dolphins’ offense wasn’t overly impressive under Tagovailoa earlier this season, but they produced 400 yards (6.2 YPP) in Week 1 (in a favorable matchup). Achane must undergo a touchdown regression. second most carries with a touchdownand Miami’s league-low red zone TD percentage (35.7) is sure to improve. Achane operated as RB1 and had a solid utilization score during Raheem Mostert’s return last week.

The Dolphins have the team’s sixth-highest implied total (25.5 points) this week, so Tagovailoa’s return is expected to have a significant impact. Achane can be a top 10 RB in the future if health cooperates.

Jordan Mason’s three touchdown runs are a lie, BUT…

Mason has the second-most carries and second-most rushing yards, but has been stuck at three touchdowns since September. Mason has not been used. almost the same as a receiver like Christian McCaffrey, but is tied with Kyren Williams for the league lead in red zone carries. Both running backs have eight more than the next closest running back in RZ rushing attempts, and Williams has rushed for eight touchdowns. Mason has three more 10-point carries than any other running back, but has converted just one of seven 5-point carries into touchdowns.

Mason was tackled at the 1-yard line last week, and the 49ers’ sixth-worst red zone TD percentage (45.1) should regress after the team led the NFL (68%) last season. Mason is clearly due to TD regression while averaging the eighth most touches per game (19.7). He also has a fantastic matchup against Dallas when San Francisco could be missing Deebo Samuel, among others.

However, Mason is playing with a shoulder sprain that limited him in practice on Wednesdayand there could be additional risk with their Sunday night game. Besides, McCaffrey expected to return after 49ers’ Week 9 byeso Mason’s role could soon diminish rapidly (to be fair, CMC’s health is still a big question mark).

Mason has been an excellent waiver/flyer addition in the last round even while scoring fewer touchdowns than expected, but his role could look very different after the break.

Josh Jacobs’ only touchdown run is a lie

Jacobs ranks third in carries and fourth in rushing yards this season, but ranks 37th in rushing touchdowns. He is one of only six running backs who have seen 100% of his team’s carries inside the five-yard line, where Jacobs has only hit on one of six carry attempts; He was 10-of-19 in those situations over the past two seasons.

Emanuel Wilson had just 21% snaps last week, and Jacobs has averaged 19.3 touches over the last three games. Green Bay averages the seventh-most points per game (26.6), and that’s with Malik Willis starting twice. Jordan Love has performed incredibly well with touchdown passes, as his 8.4% TD rate leads the league by a wide margin, and would be the highest in a season since Aaron Rodgers (8.7%) in 2020. Jacobs averaged 11 rushing touchdowns during 2020. 2022, and Love’s TD rate will regress.

Jacobs had his first career touchdown catch last week and more rushing scores are on the way.