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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football ranks doesn’t always tell the full story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that deserve a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Josh Downs’ 58.5 receiving yards per game are a lie
Downs ranks 32nd in receiving yards per game, but he gets a big fantasy boost when the Colts trade Joe Flacco. Downs ranks first in Capturable objectives per game (9.0) and fourth in yards per run run with Flacco this season. He has also been Fantasy WR5.
Downs is a legitimate route runner who is also a Reception perception favorite. Ranked 13th in ESPN Open Scoring despite returning from a sprained ankle earlier this season. Indy receivers are about to see improved intermediate accuracy and increased volume; The Colts have averaged 17 more passes during games Flacco started this season. This week he gets a pass-funneling Vikings defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and 12 touchdown passes in the last four games. Downs missed practice Wednesday, but it was likely a rest day after he was able to play due to his toe injury last week.
I have Downs as a top 15 WR this week.
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Baker Mayfield’s 21 touchdown passes are a lie
Mayfield has been fantastic this season and leads the league with four touchdown passes. But regression is coming, especially with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. Mayfield’s 7.4% touchdown rate is just shy of the league lead and well above his career mark of 4.9%. He’s certainly benefiting from throwing frequently inside the 10-yard line, but he’s also running incredibly well; Mayfield attempted just five more passes in the red zone than Matthew Stafford, who has 14 fewer touchdown passes. Tampa Bay has scored a touchdown on 68% of its red zone opportunities this season, ranking third in the NFL.
Evans is likely out until at least week 12and Godwin is lost for the regular season, leaving Cade Otton as his best pass catcher. Mayfield was able to overcome the absence of his star receivers last week, but his next matchup in Kansas City is much more difficult; The Buccaneers have the lowest implied team total this week (17.5 points) against a Chiefs defense with the third-highest pressure rate. Mayfield will break his career record for touchdown passes this season, but his blistering pace will surely slow down in the future.
Chris Olave’s WR46 rank is a lie
Olave’s fantasy scoring per game is tied with Quentin Johnston and Jalen Tolbert this season, but his fantasy arrow points up. Saw 14 targets return from injury last week, leading the league in WOPR against a Chargers secondary that had previously not allowed a WR to record eight targets or 100 yards in any game this season. Sierra Olave a target share of 37% and a 40.6% first-read target rate during his first game without Rashid Shaheed this season. Shaheed vacates the eighth-most passing yards in the league, and New Orleans is extremely thin at WR with Bub Means and Cedric Wilson also injured.
Also, Derek Carr is He is expected to return this week.. That’s a significant improvement over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both posted completion percentages above expectations in the third and 10th percentiles last week. The Saints have a healthy projected point total (26.5) against a Panthers defense that produced an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes. Carolina also has a low pressure rate in the league, and Carr has been twice as likely to attack Olave when he is not pressured.
Olave is the WR46 so far this season, but he is my WR12 this week.
Tyreek Hill’s WR42 rank is a lie
Hill has been a big disappointment for fantasy, but he’s ready to live up to his ADP down the stretch with Tua Tagovailoa back. Hill has averaged 55.3 receiving yards with zero touchdowns in eight games without Tagovailoa in Miami, but he averaged 107.3 receiving yards and scored 21 touchdowns in 32 games with him (h/t RotoViz). Hill has literally averaged twice as many fantasy points with Tagovailoa on the field.
Additionally, Hill has seen a 28% target share from Tagovailoa this season, while Jaylen Waddle has seen a modest 15%. The Dolphins went from last to almost first in neutral approval rate With Tagovailoa back last week, Miami’s offense would rank first in plays per game (68) and pass attempts per game (40!) over its three starts this season. Hill missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury, but will likely rest after being able to play last week.
Miami’s offense hasn’t looked as explosive this season even with Tagovailoa, but the volume is there for Hill to be a top-five fantasy WR down the stretch.