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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football ranks doesn’t always tell the full story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that deserve a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Brock Purdy’s five touchdown passes are a lie
Purdy is not in the top 10 in touchdown passes this season despite having the second-most passing yards and leading the league in YPA by a full half-yard. He also leads the NFL in Adjusted EPA/PLAand and has 257 more passing yards than any other quarterback. Purdy is throwing by far the deepest field among the leaders in percentage of air yards considered captureable.
Purdy led the NFL in TD percentage in each of the two seasons (6.9% and 6.2%), but this year he has fallen outside the top 12 at 4.1%. he has dealt with the most dropped deep passes while somehow creating the greatest amount of time to cast behind an unstable offensive line. After posting the best YPA (9.6) season of all time last year (minimum 350 pass attempts), Purdy’s remarkable efficiency (9.3 YPA) has continued despite the 49ers. ranking 31st in yards after the catch this season.
Purdy has disappointing touchdown statistics despite ranking fourth in red zone attempts and sixth in passes inside the 10. He ranks fourth in end zone targets. Dak Prescott somehow has more touchdown throws despite not attempting a single pass inside the 10-yard line this season. Joe Burrow has 17 attempts inside the 10 and 14 inside the five.
Purdy has averaged more RZ passes and EZ targets through the first four weeks than when he threw 26 touchdowns in the final 12 games last season, so regression is coming.
Purdy has shown he can play without his star teammates, and everyone is finally getting healthy without Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers routinely have the highest team implied weekly total, and San Francisco’s defense has suffered from injuries and was allowing the third-most YPP before facing New England. This is a very favorable setup for Purdy, who continues to improve even more after playing through an elbow injury last season.
Purdy is receiving 1.25 touchdown passes per game, but will likely average 2.0 going forward.
Aaron Jones’ only rushing touchdown is a lie
Jones ranks fifth in carries inside the five-yard line this season, and the other RBs in the standings have averaged 4.3 rushing touchdowns. Jones is also among the league leaders in red zone rushing % and ranks third in both. weighted opportunity and expected fantasy points. He looks rejuvenated with a key role in a Minnesota offense that averages the third-most points per play this season.
Sam Darnold’s highest NFL touchdown rate (10.4%!) is sure to regress (Josh Allen is second at 6.9%), as his career TD percentage is 3.9. Ty Chandler has just four red zone opportunities all season (none inside five), while Jones has 25. It’s not a favorable upcoming schedule (NYJ, bye, DET) for Jones, but it slows considerably during the second half.
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Jones is getting 5.0 YPC and seeing high-value touches in a potent Vikings offense, so touchdowns are coming.
Tee Higgins’ 7.2 fantasy points per game are a lie
Higgins has a much higher target share (23.5%), first read target rate (31.0%), and passing yardage share (34.9%) than Ja’Marr Chase (18.3%, 24 .4%, 24.2%) this season. It’s just a two-game sample, but Higgins was returning from injury and should be improving now. Higgins is the WR63, but he is the WR5 in expected fantasy points. Meanwhile, Chase is the 51st WR in expected fantasy points (all of his TDs come from 30+ yards), and his The target first read rate has decreased significantly. from 2022.
Higgins had two DPIs last week and was tackled at the one-yard line, so expect him to regress significantly seeing such good usage. The Bengals have the second highest neutral approval rate in the league, and Burrow’s wrist looks healthy as he leads the league in end zone targets (he’s also surpassed his worst month historically).
Higgins is a prime buy-low candidate in fantasy leagues.
Geno Smith’s four touchdown passes are a lie
Smith leads the NFL in completions, attempts and passing yards, but is tied for 17th in touchdown passes. It has the lowest off-target percentage. in throws more than 10 air yards behind an improved offensive line. Seattle ranks third in plays per game and first in approval rate above expectations. The Seahawks are loaded with wide receivers and the NFC West is ripe for shootouts.
More red zone attempts would help (Smith ranked sixth in end zone targets in 2023), and it’s unsustainable for Seattle to continue scoring 67% of its touchdowns on the ground. Smith led the NFC in touchdown passes just two years ago, so his low 2.5% touchdown rate will surely regress.
Amari Cooper’s WR48 rank is a lie
Cooper is a recurring name here and his quarterback problem persists. Still, dropped a 36-yard touchdown in week 1, it was stolen from a 65 yard TD in week 3 and had an 82-yard score nullified by a penalty last week.
Cooper is the WR48 but the WR8 in expected fantasy points. He ranks fourth in passing yards, although it is true that some of them are more prayer yards. The Browns get a Washington secondary this week that allows the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. There is a real chance that Jameis Winston will start for Cleveland at some point, so Cooper is a potential buy-low opportunity.
