The daily death toll from Covid-19 could drop to almost zero by the end of next month, an expert claims
Expert Professor Carl Heneghan said that daily coronavirus deaths could be zero by the end of next month
The daily number of deaths from coronavirus could be close to zero by the end of next month, an expert suggested yesterday.
It was because the deaths officially linked to Covid-19 in England and Wales fell for the third consecutive week in the week ending VE Day, raising new hopes that the worst of the pandemic could be over.
Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, said: ‘I think we will look at the data in late June and find it difficult to find people with this disease if current trends continue . ‘
The Office for National Statistics figures, which collect the official count of weekly deaths, were supported by Downing Street numbers which showed a decreasing toll of casualties with 545 deaths from Covid-19 in hospitals, nursing homes and private homes on Tuesday, making it total during the outbreak to 35,341.
While the daily count of 545 was a jump after the usual weekend rest in the shot, it was down 13 percent from the 627 count from a week earlier.
It came as the deaths officially linked to Covid-19 in England and Wales fell for the third consecutive week in the week ending VE Day, raising new hopes that the worst pandemic could be over
Professor Heneghan, director of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: ‘I think we will look at the data in late June and find it difficult to find people with this disease if current trends continue ‘
Professor Dame Angela McLean, deputy chief scientific adviser, said yesterday that the number of Covid-19 hospital patients in need of mechanical ventilation “continues to decline in all four of our countries” – a marker of those most affected after the virus contracted.
She also said there was an ongoing “steady decline” in the number of coronavirus-related deaths.
In hospitals, the declining casualty rate even before this time of year caused a lower death toll than usual.
The Office for National Statistics figures, which collect the official count of weekly deaths, were supported by Downing Street numbers that showed a decreasing toll of casualties with 545 deaths from Covid-19 in hospitals, nursing homes and private homes yesterday, bringing the total during the outbreak to 35,341. Pictured: A crowded Margate beach in Kent this afternoon
Crowds gather today by the water in The Regent’s Park in the northwest corner of central London, while people enjoyed the roasted weather
The US said hospital deaths in the week ending Friday, May 8, were 114 less than the average number of hospital deaths in the past five years.
But the 12,657 deaths recorded in the week ending the VE Day holiday were still 3,081 more than the average in the same week over the past five years.
The figure ‘excess deaths’ indicates that the virus continues to take a heavy toll.
Analysts say the low rate of hospital deaths may be due to patients dying of Covid-19 in nursing homes rather than hospitals, and people with serious health problems dying outside of viruses also die outside hospitals.
The ONS figures also showed that the share of virus deaths in care homes continued to rise.
People are paddling in the water at a natural Lido in London on Tuesday, as the capital faced the hottest weather in the entire country
Families enjoy the blistering heat across the country, taking these people to relax on the Bournemouth coast
In the week ending Friday, May 8, there were 4,248 deaths in nursing homes, compared to 6,409 in the previous week.
Of these, 1,666 had Covid-19 on the death certificate. This meant that despite the overall decline, the proportion of virus-related deaths among nursing home deaths has risen from 37.8 percent to 39.2 percent.
Dr. Jennifer Dixon of the Health Foundation charity said, “While no action plan could undo decades of political neglect, questions should be asked about the number of deaths that could have been avoided if action had been taken previously.”
The 3,930 deaths associated by doctors with the virus in the week ending Friday, May 8, compare with 6,035 the previous week and 8,758 in the worst week of the epidemic.
But the ONS warned that very few deaths were registered with registry agencies on VE day itself – a factor that will have reduced the total number of victims.
… but delays in surgery can lead to 4,755 more cancer deaths
- Deaths are thought to be due to surgery delays due to a coronavirus pandemic
- Hospitals are bracing for the number of referrals from GPs when lockdown measures are easier
- Researchers warn that a peak in the summer can lead to ‘flooding’ the system
By Ben Spencer, Medical Correspondent for the Daily Mail
An additional 4,755 cancer patients will die prematurely due to surgery delays during the coronavirus pandemic, scientists predict.
Hospitals are bracing for a jump in the number of referrals to cancer from GPs when lockdown measures are relaxed in the coming months.
Researchers at the Institute of Cancer Research in London warn that the rise in the summer could cause the system to “flood” – causing further delays.
Study leader Professor Clare Turnbull said, “The Covid-19 crisis has put enormous pressure on the NHS at every stage of the cancer path, from diagnosis to surgery and other forms of treatment.
An additional 4,755 cancer patients will die prematurely due to surgery delays during the coronavirus pandemic, scientists predict
Our study demonstrates the impact that postponement of cancer treatment will have on patients, with England and the UK in general, potentially for many thousands of attributable cancer deaths from the pandemic. ‘
The NHS told doctors in March to prioritize cancer patients for treatment.
Professor Turnbull said it was not yet clear how many surgeries had been canceled in the past two months, but he added that the delays were not as severe as expected.
“We didn’t see the competition for intensive care beds and anesthetists that we expected because everyone did what they were told to do and stayed at home.
But the real impact comes in July, August and September.
The number of referrals to cancer dropped by 25 to 75 percent between March and May.
“When these patients arrive, it is expected to flood the system.
“In total, this means that there will be thousands of additional deaths in the next five years.”
Her team calculated that if all 94,912 patients – the number of those who would normally undergo surgery to remove their cancer in England over a year – would have had a three-month delay, there would be an additional 4,755 in the next five years. would be dead.
Taking into account the time patients are expected to live after surgery, the delay would be lost by 92,214 years, according to the study published in the Annals of Oncology.
NHS officials insisted last night that this is speculative – and pointed to guidelines issued on March 30 stating that essential cancer treatment should continue.
An NHS spokesman said, “These theoretical ‘what if’ scenarios do not reflect what is actually happening as cancer services continue and expand.
“The NHS has established guidelines so that hospitals can further increase the number of cancer screenings and treatments they perform, so our message is: ‘Help us help you and get help as you always would.’