Labor appeared to have an “extraordinary” victory in the Aston by-election, previously a safe Liberal seat held by former Cabinet Minister Alan Tudge.
ABC political analyst Anthony Green called the Melbourne seat for Labor at 8.17pm after polling figures revealed that voters had turned against the Coalition in unprecedented numbers.
Labour’s Mary Doyle has 41.6 per cent of the vote with 43.8 per cent of the vote counted, while Liberal Rochina Campbell has just 35.6 per cent, with a 6.3 swing for Labour.
If the result is confirmed, it would be the first time in over a century that a federal government has claimed victory in a by-election in a previously opposition-held seat.
“This is a terrible result for the Liberals,” Green said as he called for Labor. “It is extraordinary.”
Peter Dutton
It will be the first time a federal government has won an opposition seat in a by-election since 1920 when the National Conservative Party won Kalgoorlie outside Labour.
Liberal supporters are clinging to hope of a major reversal when postal and pre-polling votes are counted, but Green said the swing needed now is too great to be a realistic possibility.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the victory in a statement at 8.44pm and said he had called Ms Doyle to congratulate her on her historic victory.
Labor’s victory was hailed as a devastating blow to opposition leader Peter Dutton in the wake of his assumption of the Liberal leadership following the defeat of former prime minister Scott Morrison in May’s federal election.
Former Labor senator Stephen Conroy said postal votes historically tend to favor the Liberal party, and those votes are expected to be counted on Sunday.
Liberal MP Dan Tehan told Sky News it was still too early to tell who would win the by-election.
“The raw numbers aren’t great but we’ll have to wait and see,” Tehan said.
We always thought it would be close.
“Early indications make you a little more nervous than you would normally be.”
Doyle gained a large 7.3 percent swing to the party in the federal election, but retired Rep. Alan Tudge still held the seat by a margin of 2.8 percent.
Australian Electoral Commission staff will spend the next few hours counting votes collected from 32 polling stations on Saturday.
A total of 110,331 people are registered with Aston.
The ECE had received about 12,000 postal votes by 5pm on Friday, after there had been 18,000 applications.
There were also an additional 23,000 people who had already voted before Saturday at an early polling station, according to the ECE.
Pay to “send a message” to the Liberal Party
Labor earlier called on voters in Aston to send a letter to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in a last-ditch bid to win back the historically safe Liberal seat.
Immigration Minister Andrew Giles told Sky News on Saturday that Aston voters now had a chance to “send a message” to the opposition leader.
“Now this is the seat that got 55 percent of the vote in the Liberal primary just four years ago, and that’s where something extraordinary happens,” said Giles.
It’s a very tight race, it’s a tight race because of Mary’s campaign and also because Peter Dutton and the Liberals are so far removed from the values of suburban Melbourne voters.
“That’s something I’ve heard over and over again because I’ve been here with Mary.”
But Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who joined Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell on Saturday, said today’s by-election is not about a “change of government”.
“Today is not about the general election,” said Mr. Dutton.
It is about electing a strong local representative.
“Labour has spent the last month throwing mud – they haven’t explained to Astonians why they are cutting road funding as their first act in government”.
Anthony Albanese Marie Doyle
Albo lends a hand
Anthony Albanese visited voters in Outer East Melbourne on Saturday morning, hours after polling began.
Albanese said he hoped Labor’s policies on social issues would be enough to entice suburban voters to put their support behind Ms Doyle, a single mother and cancer survivor.
“The trend is going in the right direction this week with the numbers, but we know that costs of living stressors are there,” Albanese said.
This is why we have taken measures such as lowering drug costs and cheap childcare.
“That’s why we support people who make minimum wage and don’t keep going back.”
Anthony Albanese Marie Doyle
Anthony Albanese Marie Doyle
Albanese went on to say it would be a tough win for the government on Saturday.
“They (the opposition) have become observers, not participants, in our national parliament, which is why I want Mary Doyle to be elected today,” he said.
“It’s tough, and the opposition generally swings. When Labor was in government, the by-elections fluctuated between 5 and 6 per cent towards the opposition.
No government has won a seat from the opposition in a by-election for over 100 years. We’re giving it a crack today.
Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said the Labor government had implemented policies in the past year that had negatively affected local residents.
Peter Dutton
“(Labour) has not explained to the people of Aston why they are cutting road funding as the first measure in government, which is pretty remarkable,” said Dutton.
“It’s a disaster for the locals and people realize the Albanian government’s first action was to cut off funding for the roads here in Aston… They never apologized for it, never explained why.”
Dutton has also targeted the rising cost of living since last year’s federal election.
“There are a lot of Australian families out there that have heard Anthony Albanese promise before the last election on 97 occasions that he will cut your power to $275,” he said.
Peter Dutton
This was a promise he made before the election, and he hasn’t mentioned it since, not once.
So the cost of living pressures are real for families and the opportunity in today’s election is to send a very clear message to Labor that they shouldn’t cut local funding to roads, they shouldn’t abandon this community.
The seat of Aston was created in 1984 and was held by Labor until 1990, but has not been won since.
Aston’s ambitious plan revealed
The Labor candidate for the Aston by-election has detailed her ambition to take the seat in a ‘history-making’ effort.
Mary Doyle, who took a huge 7.3 percent swing to the party in the federal election, said she has no qualms about being the frontrunner to win Saturday’s election.
“I really hope I win it, but I know it’s a very big mountain to climb, but I’ve never been shy about climbing a mountain, even with my dodgy knee,” she told TODAY.
“I was born in the year of the dog and I hope this will be the year of the underdog.”
The Breakfast Program correspondent went on to explain that if Labor took the seat it would be “history-making” as no government has taken a seat from the opposition at a by-election in over 100 years.
Aston Ballet Sketch
However, the Liberal Party is expected to retain the seat in the first electoral test for both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.
The Liberals hold the once-safe suburban seat – vacated by former minister Alan Tudge when he retired in February – by a margin of 2.8 per cent after a massive swing against the party in last year’s election.
Both sides say it will be a tough fight, but they expect the Liberals to persist.
“I think it’s tight, but we’ll get there,” Dutton said Friday.
But the by-election has also been framed as a test for leaders, particularly Mr Dutton who took over the leadership of the Liberal Party from Scott Morrison after the Coalition was ousted from government.
The prime minister told the Labor caucus earlier this week that any swing of less than five percent to the opposition would be a “failure” for the opposition leader.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
When asked if a poor performance would prove his leadership definitive, Mr Dutton took a page from Morrison’s guide, calling it “Canberra gossip”.
During the week he said “I am focused on making sure Rochina Campbell sits in Parliament next week because the seat of Aston deserves a very strong local member and that is what this by-election is about”.
The Liberal campaign focused on cost-of-living pressures.
“There is an opportunity here to send a message to the Labor Party that this is not good enough as living pressures continue to rise,” Dutton said.
question time
The unpopularity of Scott Morrison, along with the controversy surrounding Alan Tudge, contributed to a two party swing of 7.3 per cent against the Liberals at Aston last May.
The results of the by-elections will have no effect on the formation of the House of Representatives.
But after an agonizing defeat in New South Wales which leaves Tasmania as the lone blue state, the Liberals will be looking forward to the results for a morale boost.
Albanese says it would be “very difficult” for Doyle to overthrow the Liberals because history has been against them. As are opinion polls. No government has won a seat over the opposition in more than a century.
“The Liberals have to keep Aston with a big majority,” he told reporters in Brisbane on Friday.
The fact that the Liberal Party has to spend so much money, and that they have spent so much on Labor in this by-election in order to hold on to one of their core seats, says it all about the Liberal Party’s brand status. “
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
Aston Ballet Sketch
Meanwhile, the Australian Election Commission is urging all voters in Aston to ensure they vote in the by-election, reminding them that it is mandatory.
Australian Election Commissioner Tom Rogers said he was concerned about how few votes were being cast ahead of polling day.
“Normally, if someone votes early in one election, they’ll do so in the next election as well — and we don’t quite see that making us concerned about low turnout,” he said.
“Failure to vote may result in a fine and will mean that you have no say in who represents you in the federal parliament.”
Apart from Mrs. Campbell and Mrs. Doyle, there are three other candidates. They are Owen Miller of the Fusion Party, Angelica DiCamillo of the Green Party and Maya Tessa of the Independent.
There will be 32 open polling stations on Saturday from 8 am to 6 pm. A total of 110,331 people are registered with Aston.
Counting will begin at 6 p.m.
