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The Premier League’s expected points table for this season so far has been revealed after a supercomputer made thousands of predictions and some surprising results were discovered.
Liverpool are top of the table heading into the second international break of the season with new boss Arne Slot enjoying a dream start to his reign as manager at Anfield.
Manchester City and Arsenal trail them with just one point clear of the top three teams after seven games, while Chelsea have shone under Enzo Maresca.
Erik ten Hag’s third campaign at Manchester United was expected to see them challenge for the title, but instead they suffered their worst start to a Premier League season and remain 14th in the standings.
But, Opt A supercomputer has done the math and predicted that while some clubs are performing as expected, others could consider themselves lucky to be as high as they are.
The current expected Premier League standings have been revealed after a supercomputer ran thousands of predictions.
Liverpool are currently top of the table heading into the international break, which lines up with Opta metrics.
Pep Guardiola could see Manchester City’s title run come to an end as Opta’s current expected points table places them in fourth place.
Chelsea have been the surprise of the league this season and could take second place.
The expected points model uses statistics from the season so far to simulate where each of the 20 competing teams should be sitting based on the expected goals (xG) value of each shot taken, with each match simulated 10,000 times.
The computer model has chosen Liverpool to top the table heading into the international break based on their performances so far, in a rare case where reality matches the data provided.
Chelsea, buoyed by Cole Palmer’s sensational goalscoring form, could find it difficult to find themselves in fourth place, when Opta’s expected points table places them in second place.
If the Blues live up to expectations, chasing the league leaders would mark an outstanding result for Maresca after a turbulent few years at the club.
The Blues are currently expected to move above London rivals Arsenal, with Mikel Arteta’s team, who are third in the table, in eighth position according to Opta metrics after a series of bitter clashes who have seen the Gunners escape in the end.
Statistics show Pep Guardiola’s City have fallen to third from second, with Tottenham fourth and Aston Villa fifth.
Fulham and Bournemouth can bounce back after a good start to the season, with both improving their positions using the data from 8th to 6th (Fulham) and 13th to 7th, in the case of the Cherries.
Mikel Arteta hopes Arsenal can win the league title, but they are now expected to sit mid-table
Man United’s disastrous start to the new Premier League season seems somewhat unfair
Equally unhappy could be Manchester United, who could reach 10th place if they lived up to their xG metric.
At the other end of the table, Wolves, Leicester and Ipswich occupy the relegation places, and the two promoted teams probably have their blessing that those places actually belong to Crystal Palace and Southampton.
