The speech is the result of months of strategizing by Sunak and his team on how to reverse Labour’s large lead in the polls and give the Conservatives a fighting chance for re-election.
After a year focused on calming markets and putting out the fires in the economy, the NHS and illegal migration that he inherited, Sunak decided to change course and take big policy action.
Its recent decision to delay some flagship net zero emissions measures, including a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, while introducing a new pro-driver scheme for motorists, will be followed by another “long-term” decision. term”: discard the second. section of HS2 over rising costs.
The Prime Minister will justify the decision in similar terms to his net zero emissions move: by claiming he is being honest about costly and unrealistic policies.
Promising HS2 trains that could run from Birmingham to Manchester on existing lines (at old speeds, but without changing trains) could help limit the backlash, along with the promise that the line will run as far as London Euston, not just Old Oak Common on the outskirts of the capital.
Formal confirmation of the move will intensify confrontation with some HS2 supporters in his party, including George Osborne, the former chancellor who championed the project.
But Conservative strategists believe that by making eye-catching policy decisions that Sunak believes in, based on long-term issues and honesty, voters will see him as a politician determined to bring about change.
However, no major tax cuts are expected to be revealed in the speech, despite continued calls from dozens of conservatives for such a measure.
With the goal of halving inflation this year not yet met and rising debt interest payments leaving little fiscal room for the Treasury, it has been decided that now is not the time.
Sunak will also talk about his upbringing, including how his grandparents ended up moving to Britain and what his rise to No 10 says about the success of multiculturalism.
It will be the second time she has raised the issue after Suella Braverman, the home secretary, said in a hardline speech on immigration last week that multiculturalism had “failed”.
Underpinning this approach is the belief that to win the next election, extending the current 13-year Conservative mandate in power by another five years, Sunak must embody change.
So the Prime Minister will use his speech to try to frame Sir Keir, the Labor leader who became an MP after a decades-long legal career, as the real status quo candidate.