Are these the first rays of hope? Signs that a turning point has finally been reached? I am referring to yesterday’s encouraging inflation figures.
I don’t know about you, but when I heard that inflation had fallen to 6.8 percent, after falling to 7.9 percent last month, I suddenly felt a lot better about the world. And that was before England women won their semi-final against Australia!
Naturally I understand that the fall in inflation has little to do with the Government. It is almost entirely the result of the Bank of England’s persistent raising of interest rates, a process that most observers agree began too late.
Likewise, the Government was not really to blame for high inflation. Responsibility may be shared between the Bank of England, the pandemic, Vladimir Putin and possibly Brexit, to the extent that it exacerbated labor shortages.
But of course, human nature being what it is, most of us blame the government for the cost of living crisis. It follows that when the crisis begins to abate, some of us may view the Conservatives in a more benign light, even though they have largely been bystanders when it comes to inflation.
I don’t know about you, but when I heard that inflation had fallen to 6.8 percent, after falling to 7.9 percent last month, I suddenly felt a lot better about the world. And that was before England women won their semi-final against Australia!
Inflation Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits Topps Tiles headquarters in Leicester for a PM Connect inflation visit on Wednesday
Rishi Sunak, who is a very intelligent politician, realizes this. One of the five promises he made in January was to cut inflation in half by the end of the year. He knew that his hands were not on the levers that the Bank of England was pulling to achieve this. He just saw it happening and wanted to claim the credit.
By this time next year (barring accidents, which of course could happen) we should be getting closer to the Bank’s official target of 2 percent inflation. And Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also likely to have delivered some modest pre-election tax cuts designed to make people feel a little better.
I’m not saying that our economic problems have disappeared, far from it. What I mean is that Mr Sunak will market himself as if he has presided over some kind of recovery and would be able to deliver more of the same if he had the chance.
Please don’t think I’m crazy. I still think the Conservatives have a long and difficult road ahead if they are to defeat Labor in an election that will almost certainly take place next autumn. But it could happen.
It’s not just that the cost of living crisis appears to be starting to ease. It is also because the Labor bench, and in particular Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner, appear seriously flawed.
How well I remember the political atmosphere in 1996, the year before Labour’s landslide victory the following May. Then, as now, there was a sense that conservatives were rebellious, tired and despicably bereft of new ideas. It is true that the economy was in good shape, much better than today.
The most striking difference between then and now is the caliber of Labor leadership. Whatever mistakes he made later, Tony Blair seemed fresh and exciting, as well as harmless (this was crucial) to the middle class. Many sensible people were attracted to him, although I was not among them.
I would venture to say that if the Labor Party had a leader of Blair’s quality now, or a Chancellor-in-waiting as authoritarian as Gordon Brown was in 1997, it would walk out of next autumn’s election, no matter how much the economy improves in the meantime. .
It may be said that I am prejudiced against Sir Keir and Mrs Rayner for ideological reasons, but that is not the case. I would recognize their political talents if they had them in abundance. I just don’t think they did.
A good test is to ask natural Labor voters what they think of the current leadership. Whereas in 1996 and early 1997 these people often rejoiced, now they appear depressed. The best you will hear from them is that Sir Keir is “decent and solid”.
I’m sure he is. But he has not explained how he will generate the economic growth that he rightly says we desperately need. And he has executed so many U-turns in his policies that it is often difficult to determine which direction he is traveling.
In fact, another letter of the alphabet is needed to describe his baffling passion for zigzag: possibly a ‘W’.
It is able to start here, go there and then return to the starting point, before launching off in a new direction.
Look at their changing position on trans self-identification. Firstly, the Labor leader supported him. He then made noises of approval after Sunak blocked a Scottish Government bill allowing people as young as 16 to self-declare their gender. However, on Tuesday he apparently changed his mind. Again.
Voters may be under the impression that Sir Keir Starmer – someone who once fought in the same trenches as Jeremy Corbyn and is now looking to get rid of him – is not a man to accept a ride if you want to travel from A to B of orderly manner. manner.
As for Angela Rayner, I accept that some find her feisty and stimulating. But she can’t be the only person dismayed by her taste for class warfare (she once called conservatives “scum”). I also wonder if she has more than a rudimentary knowledge of her party’s policies.
Rishi Sunak, who is a very intelligent politician, realizes this. One of the five promises he made in January was to cut inflation in half by the end of the year. He knew his hands were not on the levers the Bank of England (pictured) was pulling to achieve this. He simply saw this happening and wanted to claim the credit.
Listeners to Radio 4’s Today program yesterday morning heard a tirade from Mrs Rayner about the Government’s economic record. She rambled on without stopping to breathe, citing “13 years of economic chaos by the Tories” (a bit of an exaggeration?), and repeating four times that the Tories had “destroyed the economy.”
This appears to be a reference to Liz Truss’ turbulent interlude in issue #10, although there is little to no evidence of lasting damage. I doubt the Labor Party will make this accusation stick.
Of course, it would be a big mistake for the Conservatives to become complacent about the shortcomings of Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy, or anyone else on the Labor front. Otherwise, their own ranks hardly brim with talent.
Obviously, problems await the Government. Inflation may be controlled, but interest rates will likely continue to rise over the next month or two, causing more pain for those taking out or renewing mortgages.
This winter the NHS could become a war zone, especially if strikes by junior doctors and consultants are not called off. We can imagine the heartbreaking images of patients on carts waiting in the hallways. This will not improve the popularity of the Government.
Furthermore, unless Rishi Sunak shows progress in reducing immigration, both illegal and legal, the Government is certain to be punished by some people who voted Conservative in 2019.
The odds remain against another Conservative victory. I just think there is hope. Rishi needs to be lucky and daring. He is an infinitely better politician than Sir Keir and more attractive.
Yesterday could be remembered as the day the Lionesses reached the World Cup final, and the day the economic headwinds finally eased, giving the Conservatives a glimpse of an opportunity.