Another storm is brewing in the Atlantic that could hit the United States, just days after Milton and Helene caused carnage.
Weather experts in Florida are monitoring the weather event, currently named AL94, which could be named Tropical Storm Nadine if it worsens.
And now a spaghetti pattern (so called because the lines resemble strands of pasta) suggests that AL94 will continue northwest from its current position.
This would take it north of Antigua and Barbuda and into the Dominican Republic and the southern tip of Cuba, where models show the storm moving southwest toward Jamaica.
While the model currently doesn’t have a direct line to Florida, it could change in the coming days as forecasters said the Sunshine State was a “possibility.”
The spaghetti model, created using different forecast models, shows possible Hurricane Nadine moving through the Caribbean. But one expert said there is still a chance it could affect Florida.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) revealed Tuesday that Invest L94 has a 50 percent chance of becoming a hurricane in seven days.
“This system is forecast to move generally westward and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by mid to late this week,” the NHC shared in a statement.
The spaghetti model, created by Tropical thingsshowed that the storm is likely to move northwest from its current location in the tropical Atlantic.
The computer model was created by combining multiple forecast tracks from different weather models into a single map.
And each line, which resembles a strand of spaghetti, represents a forecast of a different weather mode used by the NHC.
The paths found, such as those through the Dominican Republic and Cuba, suggest that the forecasts used to track Nadine coincide on that route, increasing the probability of the prediction.
AccuWeather’s Leading Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said: ‘One possibility would take the system westward towards Central America and southern Mexico, and the other, unfortunately, towards Florida.
“It is typically very difficult for a tropical system to continue northwestward and enter Texas this late in the season due to the prevailing westerly breezes in that area.”
Nadine, currently a tropical depression, is headed toward Florida, which has a 50 percent chance of reaching hurricane status within seven days.
Nadine is currently a tropical depression, a cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 60 kilometers per hour, but could strengthen if it reaches the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
“Not only are the waters very warm in this area (up to 80 degrees Fahrenheit at depth), but the ocean heat content in the western Caribbean is at record levels for any time of year,” DaSilva said.
However, forecasters are acting with caution and told DailyMail.com that the storm is unlikely to reach hurricane status.
As the storm passes over the Virgin Islands, the mountains could stop growing.
He added that “there is little chance of a direct impact on the United States because there is wind shear that could protect us.”
Wind shear consists of strong upper-level winds that can remove heat and moisture from a hurricane’s eye and distort its shape, effectively tearing it apart.
If the storm were to become something larger, DaSilva said it probably wouldn’t happen until Oct. 17-18 and forecasters won’t know which path the storm will take until then.
“I don’t think it will affect us at all,” he said, adding that “it will just be pushed out to sea or there will be nothing left when it reaches the United States.”
However, the storm is still a long way off and if it hits the United States, it wouldn’t be for nine days, “so things can still change,” DaSilva said.
If the storm turns around and hits Florida, it will be the fourth to hit the state this year and just weeks after Milton left a trail of destruction.
At least 17 people died in Florida, and while the state is still assessing the financial cost, the damage is estimated to be in the billions.
Milton also arrived after Hurricane Helene, which hit the Southeast two weeks earlier, leaving states underwater along the coast.
Helene cost between $30.5 billion and $47.5 billion in total damages across 16 states, according to CoreLogic, and has so far claimed the lives of more than 230 people, with many others still missing.
Hurricanes above the mid-October average have already been recorded this year, with four major hurricanes, including Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton, hitting the United States.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the United States would have an above-average hurricane season and predicted four to seven Category 3 or higher hurricanes would hit.
The prediction so far has turned out to be true: in mid-October the situation was above historical averages. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
