Harvard researchers believe Americans may need to be at home much longer to “ smooth out ” the curve of the coronavirus spread and avoid overwhelming the U.S. health care system.
A new Harvard study, which was posted on the preprint server MedRxiv on Tuesday, claims that social distancing must be turned off and on like a tap to fight the virus for up to two years.
In the study With the title, Social Distance Strategies to Curb the COVID-19 Epidemic, Harvard medical researchers write that “a single period of social distance will not be enough.”
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Harvard researchers believe Americans may need to be at home much longer to “ smooth out ” the curve of the coronavirus spread and avoid overwhelming the U.S. health care system. New Yorkers social distance while waiting in line at Rite Way Drugs in Manhattan
There are two possible futures for social distance. In the first scenario (pictured), the US would come to a point where health care is low, meaning that social distance should be extended intermittently until 2022
In the second scenario (see photo), if there are more resources for health care, the social distance may end in mid-2021
Instead, researchers believe that the US may need to try intermittent social distancing, which means that there would be periods of isolation coupled with normal interaction.
“Intermittent social distance can keep the demand for critical care within the current thresholds,” the authors wrote.
The study authors believe this would help free hospital beds for the seriously ill.
According to the researchers, there are two possible futures for social distance and how it can help stop the coronavirus.
In the first scenario, the US would come to a point where health care is low, meaning that social distance should be extended intermittently until 2022.
In the second scenario, if there is more concern, social distancing may end in mid-2021.
The study authors believe that there should be no more than 37.5 cases of COVID-19 per 10,000 people. Their research shows that that should be when the ‘on’ switch is turned on to start social distance again. New Yorkers are waiting outside a Trader Joe’s in Brooklyn
Customers in the ShopRite on Hyland Blvd in Staten Island shop during Wednesday’s Social Distance
The researchers wrote that they “evaluated the impact of one-off social distance efforts with varying effectiveness and duration on the peak and timing of the epidemic with and without seasonal forcing.”
“When transmission is not subject to seasonal forcing, one-off social distance measures reduce the scale of the epidemic.”
But “under all scenarios there was a flare-up of infection when the simulated social distance measures were lifted.”
To break that down even further, the authors believe that there should be no more than 37.5 cases of COVID-19 per 10,000 people.
Their research shows that that should be the ‘on’ switch to start social distance again.
If the number of 37.5 is maintained, they would keep the number of patients in need of critical care at 0.89 per 10,000 people.
The study was released around the same time President Donald Trump said he wants America to get back to work at Easter, suggesting that some efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus outbreak will no longer be needed by then.
The study was released around the same time President Donald Trump (photo Wednesday) said he wants America back to work by Easter, suggesting that some efforts will no longer be needed to spread the coronavirus outbreak by then to be
Worried about the economic consequences of a long-term halt to non-essentials, the president said in a televised interview Tuesday that he wanted businesses to return to normal by Easter or April 12.
“I’d love it if the country was open and just went over Easter,” he said.
“The LameStream Media is the dominant force in trying to get me to keep our country closed for as long as possible in hopes of harming my election success,” Trump tweeted Wednesday.
“The real people want to get back to work as soon as possible. We will be stronger than ever before! ‘
Trump also rebelled against suggestions that he is cavalier about the prospect of more deaths being caused by a premature reopening of the economy.
“How many deaths are acceptable to me?” Trump told reporters on Wednesday evening. ‘No.’