The Government is underestimating the number of Britons receiving sickness benefits by more than a quarter of a million people, according to a leading think tank.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a £2bn welfare “black hole” because officials have systematically underestimated the huge rise in people claiming disability benefits, the Center for Social Justice has claimed.
The think tank said its analysis of Department for Work and Pensions projections over a ten-year period found officials underestimated the number of future claimants by an average of 255,000.
There are now more than 9.25 million economically inactive adults (those not working or seeking employment) of working age in Britain, highlighting the extent of the sick leave culture in the country.
Of this figure, more than three million are claiming disability benefits (up 800,000 since the pandemic) and this is expected to reach 3.8 million by the end of this parliament.
The CSJ said that if the average underestimation of 255,000 is added to current forecasts, the number of people claiming sickness benefits could exceed four million by the end of this parliament.
This would mean more than a million additional people claiming disability benefits compared to today, with a total cost to the exchequer of £33.5bn by 2029.
There would be “thousands more people condemned to living on welfare benefits” if this is allowed to continue unabated, researchers warned.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a £2bn welfare “black hole” because officials have systematically underestimated the huge rise in people claiming disability benefits, the Center for Social Justice has claimed.
Britain has been suffering its longest sickness absence epidemic for a quarter of a century and younger and older workers are driving the trend, new analysis shows.
The CSJ calls on the chancellor to take urgent action to get economically inactive Britons back to work.
Andy Cook, chief executive of the think tank, said: “These are deeply worrying findings.
As if the challenge of economic downtime wasn’t already difficult enough, our analysis suggests there are thousands more claimants slipping through the cracks.
“This must trigger a radical response in this budget, not only to rein in the ballooning welfare bill and fix the foundations of our economy, but to avoid squandering the potential of thousands of people who could thrive at work.”
Rachel Reeves is expected to use her Budget to commit £240m to local back-to-work services, saying she wants to “build a Britain where people who can work, work”.
However, the chancellor is under pressure to tackle the rising social care bill caused by the rise in long-term illnesses, which is putting pressure on public finances and stifling economic growth.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to proceed with measures planned by the Conservatives that will see a £1.6bn crackdown on fraudulent claims.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to proceed with measures planned by the Conservatives which will see a £1.6bn fight against fraudulent claims and a cut in welfare payments to some people with mobility and mental health problems.
In a speech on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer promised the budget would “pave the way for reforms that tackle the root causes of economic slack”.
He added that the extra money would “provide local services that can help people get back to work and the dignity that brings.”
The Department for Work and Pensions has been contacted for comment.