Just a week ago, the SEC was arguing that it deserved five teams in this year’s College Football Playoff. There have already been proposals in which the league (along with the Big Ten) would receive four automatic bids in future years.
Well, if you want to know the nightmare scenario for the SEC in the 12-team field of 2024, it’s this: only two teams.
Yes, two.
The College Football Playoff committee released its latest rankings Tuesday and the cake is starting to get closer to being baked when it comes to who’s in and who’s out.
After a disastrous weekend for the SEC in which home underdogs Florida, Oklahoma and Auburn defeated playoff contenders Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M, respectively, the league has just three teams in the current bracket.
Texas, the presumptive SEC champion, is No. 2. Georgia, which has already clinched a spot in the SEC title game, is No. 8. Tennessee is ninth and would play at Athens in the first round.
Alabama (13), Ole Miss (14) and South Carolina (15) sit on the outside looking in, stuck with three losses.
Here’s how it could all go wrong for the SEC:
No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3) defeats Texas on Saturday in College Station. The loss leaves Texas at 10-2, but without a single victory over a ranked opponent. The committee drops the Longhorns from third place in the standings until they are removed from the group.
Texas A&M advances to the SEC title game, but loses to Georgia to finish the season at 9-4. The Aggies would be out.
That leaves Georgia with the automatic bid and second place overall. Meanwhile, Tennessee (10-2 if it can beat Vanderbilt) is safe in the field and will likely host a first-round game.
But that’s all.
There would be an open spot for someone to fill (the one Texas was giving up), but the committee currently likes No. 12 Clemson over Alabama (9-3 if it beats Auburn in this weekend’s Iron Bowl) and Ole Miss (9-3 if they beat Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl).
Clemson, meanwhile, hosts No. 15 South Carolina. If the Tigers were to defeat the Gamecocks, then Clemson will be the team best positioned to move up.
Of course, South Carolina could win and secure an impressive victory, but would the committee put them ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss, who defeated the Gamecocks earlier in the season?
Either way, the SEC could really use some help.
Having Notre Dame lose at USC and fight would free up an offer. Miami’s loss at Syracuse could do it too because it would end the possibility of an ACC title game between 11-1 SMU and 11-1 Canes, a matchup of one-loss teams where even the loser could remain in the field.
Whatever the case, the SEC is unexpectedly in trouble.
The league likes to point out its quality depth. Not bad. There are more good teams in that league than any other, including the Big Ten, which is the heaviest.
It also means that many teams hit each other, causing losses to pile up. How does the committee view all of that? So far he doesn’t seem impressed with the plot, although he is known to have changed course in the final standings.
Consider Alabama, the Zombie Tide, who surely looked dead after an ugly 24-3 loss last weekend at Oklahoma. The Tide has three losses, including two bad ones (Vanderbilt and the Sooners). They also have three wins over currently ranked teams: Georgia, South Carolina and No. 21 Missouri.
What matters more?
Or consider South Carolina, which lost three games (LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama), but has been playing extremely well the last five weeks. A win at Clemson would give the Gamecocks three wins over CFP-ranked teams (Clemson, Texas A&M and Missouri). The Gamecocks also crushed Oklahoma, 35-9.
Indiana (11-1 if it beats Purdue) would not have such a victory over a ranked team. Penn State (11-1 if it beats Maryland) would have just one: No. 23 Illinois.
What matters more?
Nobody, maybe not even the committee, knows. And of course, this weekend there could be widespread chaos and unrest, rendering all the worry and politics useless. Just a week ago, Tennessee was on alert. Now the Vols control their destiny and could still host a playoff game.
Yet the SEC is a large and powerful force in college football, in a sport that has long followed the golden rule: Those with the gold make the rules.
A three-bid SEC season wouldn’t go well in Birmingham. A double offer? Who knows what they do.
That’s the current system and these, according to the committee’s latest smoke signals, are what’s at stake, should Texas at Texas A&M, let alone South Carolina at Clemson, matter even more.