How Rising Seas Will Sink LANDS: Scientists calculate that current satellite-based predictions are wrong and three times as many people will be affected by rising coastline by 2050
- A study suggests that 300 million people will be affected by rising sea levels by 2050
- The figure triples estimates previously outlined by NASA
- In the UK alone, 3.5 million people are now at risk of flooding
- Actual estimates may still deteriorate depending on the instability of the Antarctic ice sheet
New estimates by scientists suggest that three times as many people may be affected by rising seas than previously thought.
According to an article published in Nature communication on Tuesday, new models show that currently 300 million people live on land that will flood at least once a year by 2050.
This overshadows an earlier estimate from NASA, which currently endangered an estimated 80 million people.
The new estimates of eclipse projections from NASA, which previously brought the number of people at risk of flooding to 80 million. New models say that no fewer than 300 million people are at risk
A renewed model, which more accurately takes into account land height with the help of satellite readings and artificial intelligence, claims that parts of countries such as Vietnam and India will be submerged by the mid-century.
According to researchers, the new estimates even came as a shock to them, given their dramatic difference from previous values.
& # 39; These assessments show the potential of climate change to reform cities, economies, coastlines and entire global regions & # 39; s throughout our lives, & # 39; said Scott Kulp, the lead author of the study and a senior scientist at Climate Central. The Guardian.
Risk areas include large parts of densely populated cities such as Mumbai, where more than 18 million people live and can be almost completely submerged in the next 30 years.
Models show the worst effects in Asia, where countries such as India saw a seven-fold increase in the number of people affected by annual floods, and China saw a triple increase.
However, the threat is not limited to Asia. In the UK, according to their estimates, 3.5 million people are at risk of flooding by 2050.
According to the researchers, the US was not one of the most affected areas, but earlier estimates have shown that dozens of cities in the country's coastal areas can quickly be submerged, especially in states such as New Jersey and Florida.
Above is a map that shows the relative increase of affected people compared to previous estimates using NASA data
Both Jakarta and Bangkok will also be influenced by rising tides. Given the population density of those cities, the turnout could displace millions
Flooding during hurricane Sandy in New Jersey can be seen above, from 2012
Although the projection is significantly worse than previous models, researchers note that the disturbing results can get even worse.
According to them, models depend on an increasingly volatile Antarctic ice sheet that continues to bleed ice in the sea.
Scientists say that if conditions deteriorate there, by 2100 no fewer than 640 million people can be threatened by flood.
The estimates are also based on countries that adhere to emission reductions laid down in the Paris Agreement – benchmarks that have been met continuously.
Similarly, estimates of the financial impact can also be much larger than previously thought.
As noted by The Guardian, World Bank data that estimates global climate change costs around $ 1 trillion a year was based on earlier models.
WHAT SPEAKS FOR THE LOT OF PLANET PLANTS AND ANIMALS?
Nature now has more problems than ever before in human history, with extinction looming over a million species of plants and animals, experts say.
That is the most important outcome of the first comprehensive United Nations report on biodiversity – the diversity of plant and animal life in the world or in a particular habitat.
The report – published on May 6, 2019 – says that species are lost dozens or hundreds of times faster than in the past.
Many of the worst effects can be prevented by changing the way we grow food, produce energy, deal with climate change and throw away waste, the report said.
The 39-page summary of the report highlighted five ways in which people reduce biodiversity:
– Forests, grasslands and other areas turn into farms, cities and other developments. The loss of habitat makes plants and animals homeless. Approximately three-quarters of the Earth's land, two-thirds of the oceans and 85% of the crucial wetlands have been severely altered or lost, making species more difficult to survive, the report said.
– Overfishing of the world's oceans. A third of the world's fish stocks are overfished.
– Allowing climate change by burning fossil fuels to make it too hot, wet or dry for some species to survive. Almost half of the land mammals in the world – excluding bats – and nearly a quarter of the birds have already hit their habitat hard by global warming.
– Polluting land and water. Every year, 300 to 400 million tonnes of heavy metals, solvents and toxic sludge are dumped into the world's waters.
– Allowing invasive species to displace native plants and animals. The number of invasive alien species per country has risen by 70 percent since 1970, with one species of bacteria threatening nearly 400 species of amphibians.
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