Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still gaining ground as the only third-party candidate so far who could serve as a spoiler — but most surveys show he’s more likely to ruin Donald Trump’s chances in the White House in 2024 than that of President Joe Biden.
A recent poll this month from Quinnipiac shows that Biden still earns the most support with 39 percent of the vote when placed in a hypothetical general election matchup with Trump and Kennedy.
Meanwhile, the same poll shows the former president with 36 points of support, while Kennedy earned 22 percent.
That he has reached nearly one-third support so early in a general election poll is shocking and shows that RFK Jr. does have a following that could lead him to ruin Trump’s chance to regain control of the White House.
Kennedy originally ran as a Democrat, but last month he changed his mind and decided he would run as an independent instead.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could serve as a spoiler for Donald Trump in 2024, according to various polls and analyses
Before Kennedy, the last independent presidential candidate to gain more than 20% of support within a year of the election was Ross Perot in 1992 – receiving 19% of the vote that year.
The last independent presidential candidate to gain more than 20 percent support in a pre-election poll within a year of the election was Ross Perot in 1992. He received 19 percent of the vote that year.
A separate Quinnipiac University poll released in early October shows Republican voters RFK Jr. much more than their Democratic counterparts.
Republicans have a more favorable view of Kennedy by a 30-point margin, while Democrats have a more unfavorable view of him by a 43-point margin.
Despite his initial Democratic run, Kennedy holds many views — especially regarding COVID-19 and the vaccination — that align with the ideals of the MAGA base.
In swing states, RFK Jr. performs also fine.
A shock New York Times/Siena College Survey where Trump defeated Biden in five of the six battleground states crucial to victory in 2024, Kennedy also racked up some impressively high numbers as a third-party candidate.
Kennedy received 24 percent support in Arizona, 23 percent in Georgia, 25 percent in Michigan, 19 percent in Nevada and 21 percent in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
These six states are the states that Biden won against Trump in 2020 – many of which went from red to blue between 2016 and the last presidential election.
Although Trump wins against Biden in five of six states in a hypothetical head-to-head, according to the NYT/Siena poll, RFK Jr.’s interference ruins the deal. in the decision it was for the ex-president.
When Kennedy was added as an option for likely voters, Trump was only ahead of Biden in two of the six states — Georgia and Nevada — and his five-point lead in Arizona and Pennsylvania fell to ties with the current president.
Essentially, what Trump’s team touted as a Republican victory in the latest poll is becoming less clear as Kennedy’s entry into the race raises questions about the favorite to win the Electoral College in 2024.
A NYT/Siena poll this month showed Trump beating Biden in five of the six key swing states for 2024 — but when Kennedy was added to the mix, Trump won only two of the six.
Independent Cornel West announced his bid under the People’s Party on June 5. He got 6 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in the recent Quinnipiac and CNN/SSRS surveys.
In addition, Jill Stein announced Thursday that she is running for the Green Party nomination in 2024. She was the third party nominee in 2012 and 2016.
On Thursday, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia said Thursday that he will not seek re-election to Congress next year — fueling speculation that he will launch a third-party bid with the No Labels movement, which seeks bipartisanship in the executive branch .
A PRRI poll last summer showed Manchin winning 10 percent of the vote as the No Labels candidate.