Home Sports REVEALED: Stats boffins calculate Everton’s new chances of relegation after their 10-point deduction was reduced… but it’s particularly bad news for one of their rivals

REVEALED: Stats boffins calculate Everton’s new chances of relegation after their 10-point deduction was reduced… but it’s particularly bad news for one of their rivals

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REVEALED: Stats boffins calculate Everton's new chances of relegation after their 10-point deduction was reduced... but it's particularly bad news for one of their rivals
  • Everton’s 10-point deduction for breaching financial rules reduced to six
  • The reduction has given the Toffees a boost in their fight against relegation.
  • Chelsea had no guts when taking penalties. Liverpool have a cause, Mauricio Pochettino’s team has no soul – Listen to the everything is beginning podcast

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The reduction of Everton’s 10-point penalty has dramatically altered the relegation picture within the Premier League, according to statistics experts.

The Toffees were docked 10 points by an independent commission in November for breaching spending rules in a period ending in 2021-22 after spending more than £105m of allowable losses of £19.5m.

However, the club appealed the decision and on Monday the Premier League announced that its point deduction had been reduced from 10 to six, with the appeals board concluding that the commission had made “legal errors” in imposing the original punishment.

Sean Dyche’s men have risen to 15th position in the standings after the news, which has allowed them to recover four points, although a second accusation for breach of spending limits hangs over them.

And, according to Twenty First Group data, Everton are now statistically 11 per cent safer from relegation, with their chances of dropping to the Championship reduced to just 5 per cent from 16th.

Everton are 11 per cent safer from relegation after their points deduction was reduced to six

Data from statisticians gives Sean Dyche's team only a five for probability of relegation

Data from statisticians gives Sean Dyche's team only a five for probability of relegation

Data from statisticians gives Sean Dyche’s team only a five for probability of relegation

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Meanwhile, several teams are one per cent more likely to go down following Everton’s points penalty reduction.

This includes Brentford and Crystal Palace, although the Eagles are eight points clear of the bottom three after their 3-0 win over Burnley at the weekend.

Nottingham Forest, who were accused of breaching Premier League spending limits in January, have seen their relegation chances rise by two per cent, while Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have a 14 per cent chance of falling between the last three.

The biggest impact of Everton’s appeal can be seen at Luton, where Rob Edwards’ side are six per cent more likely to go down, while the Hatters are third favorites for relegation with a 78 per cent chance.

They are currently four points behind Nottingham Forest, although they have a crucial game in hand, which will be against Bournemouth on March 13.

The Hatters will then take on Forest at Kenilworth Road in a potentially decisive match on March 16.

Luton are now six per cent more likely to go down and have a 78 per cent chance of being relegated.

Luton are now six per cent more likely to go down and have a 78 per cent chance of being relegated.

Luton are now six per cent more likely to go down and have a 78 per cent chance of being relegated.

Nottingham Forest's chances of finishing in the bottom three have increased by two per cent

Nottingham Forest's chances of finishing in the bottom three have increased by two per cent

Nottingham Forest’s chances of finishing in the bottom three have increased by two per cent

Elsewhere, the Cherries have a one per cent chance of relegation, while Fulham’s chance of dropping from the top flight is less than one per cent.

Meanwhile, Burnley and Sheffield United are now 11 points from safety and the statistics suggest their survival hopes are all but over.

Burnley have a 97 per cent chance of relegation, while the Blades have a more than 99 per cent chance of returning straight to the Championship.

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