Is the pandemic jeopardizing your career? Research shows which jobs are most at risk of being wiped out by the coronavirus – and which professions are safe
- A new report states that “routine businesses” are more at risk from recession
- Report from the University of Melbourne written by economics professor David Borland
- According to reports, the industry that could be replaced by technology is most at risk
The coronavirus pandemic is likely to accelerate job losses for careers already competing with technological change, a new study claims.
Economics professor Jeff Borland, from the University of Melbourne, found that routine manual jobs such as factory workers, drivers and sales associates would be hit hard by the crisis.
“Past recessions in Australia have brought about accelerated job losses already threatened by technological change and globalization,” he told Daily Mail Australia.
“Should that pattern repeat during the COVID-19 recession, routine manual and cognitive tasks are most at risk.”
In addition to these professions, there are professions directly affected by lockdown restrictions, such as aviation and retail jobs.
The coronavirus pandemic is likely to accelerate job losses for careers already competing with technological change, such as manual construction work (photo)
While cleaners are considered a routine manual task, the specifics surrounding COVID-19 should help keep this industry safe (photo)
In a September 14 report, Prof. Borland said the Australian labor market is likely to face structural changes as a result of the global health crisis.
A structural change refers to a large-scale shift in the industries in which people work.
In the past, recessions have accelerated job losses in routine manual professions, Prof Borland said.
It is these industries that must continuously compete with automation and technological changes that result in slower employment growth.
“ During recessions in Australia in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, the slowdowns in job growth and job destruction were concentrated in the manufacturing, construction and trade sectors – and among workers in trade professions, ” he wrote in the report. .
‘However, the degree of concentration of the employment effects per industry and occupation declined in later recessions.’
Retail workers will face major challenges in the post-coronavirus world, with consumer spending patterns shifting to online, combined with automated technology such as self-checks.
Uber and taxi drivers also saw a downturn in business after coronavirus shutdown that reduced travel (photo)
Factory workers are also one of the specific occupations that lost the most jobs during past recessions as jobs become automated.
The report also states that administrative staff are also at risk of their roles being automated by information technology software.
Border closures will also have an effect on the structure of the workforce, says Prof. Borland, who predicts that the aviation industry and universities will struggle to come back.
With persistent restrictions on international travel, the composition of employment will shift away from international aviation and tourism; and higher education, ”the report states.
Lockouts also affect Uber and taxi drivers, with the majority of people choosing to stay indoors instead of heading out for entertainment or work.
People who use digital technology more during lockdowns will also contribute to a shift in the labor market.
‘If online meeting tools only permanently conquer a small part of the interstate meeting market, that would have consequences for domestic aviation. Or increasing use of online banking could lead banks to reconsider some existing branches. ‘
Prof Borland predicts that the first major shift in the workforce structure will occur when JobKeeper ends in March 2021, with further changes to follow as the workforce stabilizes.
Beauty Therapy (pictured) is a profession that has grown in recent years and must remain resistant to the employment effects of the coronavirus
HOW SAFE IS YOUR INDUSTRY?
ROUTINE COGNITIVE JOBS – 1 PERCENT GROWTH 2009 TO 2019
Secretary, Administration, Receptionist, Call Center Operator
ROUTINE MANUAL JOB – 1.3 PERCENT GROWTH 2009 TO 2019
Mechanic, construction, factory worker, road and train driver, worker
NON-ROUTINE COGNITIVE WORK – 2.4 PERCENT GROWTH 2009 TO 2019
Executives, Engineers, Media, Marketing, Scientists, Doctors, Lawyers, IT
NON-ROUTINE USER GUIDE JOBS – 2.7 percent GROWTH 2009 TO 2019
Health Workers, Hospitality, Personal Trainers, Beauty Technician, Sales