Reducing emissions can reduce heat-related deaths in the Middle East, North Africa: study

Scientists said Tuesday that meeting global targets for curbing climate change would avert hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa, and urged the region to better adapt.

Modeling study published in The Lancet Planetary Health. The Lancet Planet Health The journal found that cutting carbon emissions to limit the average global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius would reduce heat-related deaths in the region by 80 percent compared to a high emissions scenario.

The regional focus on heat risks came as Dubai prepares to host the COP28 UN climate summit in November.

Countries have pledged to limit global warming to 1.5°C under the Paris climate accords, prompting efforts to shift to low-carbon energy sources.

Under the higher emissions scenario without cuts, about 123 people per 100,000 in the region will die annually from heat-related causes by the end of this century, according to the study, which was led by specialists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. .

That would be 60 times greater than the current rate of heat death and much higher than in other regions of the world.

Of the 19 countries analyzed, Iran would have been expected to have the highest annual death rate under the high emissions scenario – 423 deaths per 100,000 population.

And lead author Shakur Hojat told AFP that temperatures are expected to be very high in parts of Iran. Aging will also occur at a faster rate there than in many other countries in the region.

Hajjat ​​said the health effects would be “catastrophic” if Target 2C was not reached.

“Even with stronger measures, countries in the region need to develop methods other than air conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of extreme heat,” he said.

Public health measures such as national heat protection schemes and heat warning systems could be introduced.

“These are common in countries in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, but not in the Middle East,” he said.

“Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa also need to strengthen their existing health systems to better prepare for the impacts of climate change.”

© 2023 AFP