RAY MASSEY: Time to consult my trusty crystal ball for 2025 automotive predictions

Every New Year brings with it the opportunity to take stock of the past 12 months and look forward to the many opportunities that lie ahead. So here are my predictions…

1) Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will soften elements of the controversial ZEV Mandate, which insists that 28 per cent of cars sold next year must be fully electric (up from 22 per cent this year), rising to 100 per cent in 2035.

If those targets are not met, manufacturers will be fined £15,000 for each car sold that breaches the limit. This suggests that many electric vehicles are sold at a loss.

The minister announced an “accelerated” review of the controversial targets at the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ annual dinner in November, where, hours earlier, Vauxhall announced it would close its Luton electric van plant, employing more than 1,100 jobs. of work at risk. Nissan’s Sunderland plant also appears unstable.

Humbled by the sudden news, Reynolds admitted he was “deeply concerned” about how the mandate was working and told 1,000 guests that he had heard them “loud and clear.” On Christmas Eve, the Government held a formal consultation (open until 18 February) on the ZEV’s mandate to examine the “current arrangements and flexibilities”.

So let’s hope there is wiggle room so that auto companies are allowed to count the electric vehicles they export, not just those sold here.

The consultation also seeks views on reinstating the 2030 deadline to stop sales of new petrol and diesel cars. But plug-in hybrid cars (and perhaps some hybrids) can be expected to be exempt until 2035. However, consumer discounts on electric vehicles should not be anticipated. SMMT boss Mike Hawes warned that “such incentives are unsustainable – the industry cannot achieve the UK’s global ambitions alone.”

2) Keep an eye on China as it exploits those weaknesses to export huge quantities of more affordable electric cars to the UK.

Chinese giant BYD has a range of electrified cars such as the Dolphin hatchback (from around £26,000), the Seal SUV (£46,000) and the Sealion 7 crossover landing next year from £44,990.

And coming in February, get ready for the GWM Haval Jolion Pro Hybrid, priced between £23,995 and £29,995. Tariffs, as already imposed by the US and EU, have so far been ruled out in the UK as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer reaches out to Chinese leaders.

3) Then there’s Jaguar.

Or should it be ‘jaGuar’ after its rebrand caused a global crisis? However, I wish the company the best.

The ‘jaGuar’ GT electric concept car looks bold and exciting and, despite the ‘woke’ marketing debacle, I really liked it, although the ‘copy from scratch’ claim is an exaggeration. But we will have to wait until the end of next year to see production models and until 2026 to see them on sale.

4) I also predict that the war on the country’s struggling motorists will continue unabated, with more cameras raising money to enforce 20mph zones and other speed limits, parking zones and bus lanes.

Whatever the future holds, a happy new year to all.