The cold wave hitting Australia’s east coast may be short-lived with a rare weather phenomenon that will bring unusually warm temperatures.
Last week, Sydney shivered through its coldest May morning in four years, as temperatures in the western part of the city dipped to 2.5°C.
But Tropical Cyclone Mocha, which swept through Myanmar and Bangladesh earlier this month, is likely to have triggered a chain reaction in the Indian Ocean that will bring a period of hot and dry weather across the country.
The system originated in the northeastern Indian Ocean and developed into a Category 5 tropical cyclone with winds of up to 280 km/h before hitting the coast of Myanmar on May 14.
It was the equally strongest cyclone on record in the region and appears to have affected barometric pressure so much that it altered the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – the equivalent of the El Niño and La Niña climate factors in the Pacific Ocean.
During the positive dipole period in the Indian Ocean, Australia sees hot and dry weather in much of the country
Tropical Cyclone Mocha could have triggered the process to produce a positive IOP
According to Weather zoneit seems that a positive IOD will develop in winter that will raise temperatures and suppress rainfall, leading to a particularly hot and dry spring.
“Research shows that strong tropical cyclones that form in April or May in the Bay of Bengal often lead to a positive IOP later that year,” said meteorologist Joel Pippard.
“They found that all eight positive IODs between 1958 and 1999 were preceded by a severe tropical cyclone over the Bay of Bengal.”
During positive IOD periods, South Australia and the Murray-Darling Basin will be most affected by the hot and dry weather, but it is likely to affect much of the country.
“It appears that Tropical Cyclone Mokka has already started the process, increasing the likelihood that we may see positive IOP in 2023,” Pippard said.
The Indian Ocean dipole is influenced by air pressure and water convection currents in the Indian Ocean
Australia could face a warmer winter and a hot and dry spring (stock image)
Australia has been experiencing particularly wild weather since 2019 and more could be on the way.
According to a new report, demand for funding for weather disaster recovery is expected to double.
Of Australia’s 540 local government areas, about 80 percent have received some form of relief and recovery funding in the past three years, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) coordinator-general Brendan Moon told a Senate hearing this week .
“Many have been activated multiple times and so we have a real problem about the compound, cascading effects of these particular disasters,” he said.
“A lot of time is spent on recovery and reconstruction, which reduces preparation for the next wave of disasters.”
Mr Moon said the agency was focused on better preparing communities for the long term, not just immediate remedial action.
But there are concerns that global warming will make it more difficult for aid workers to access vital firefighting aircraft as wildfires become more common around the world.
Tropical Cyclone Mocha that hit Myanmar was the strongest ever recorded in the region (pictured)
Joe Buffone, NEMA’s Deputy Coordinator General for Emergency Management and Response, said fire seasons in the southern and northern hemispheres are increasingly overlapping, potentially leading to a reduction in the availability of aircraft leased from countries in the northern hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere.
“There’s no doubt there’s an overlap, and we’re exploring what that means,” he told the committee.
“At this time, the advice from the National Aerial Firefighting Center is that we will meet our aviation requirements for the upcoming fire season.”
The national fleet consists of 151 firefighting aircraft, including a fully funded air tanker.
In total, more than 500 aircraft are available for firefighting in Australia, including aircraft owned and contracted by states and territories, according to the NAFC website.
An audit of the Disaster Recovery Funding Scheme found that the federal government made $3.1 billion in payments to state governments between June 2018 and June 2022.
It expects this figure to rise to $6.4 billion between 2022-23 and 2025-26.
